ACUS11 KWNS 301549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301549=20
TXZ000-301745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301549Z - 301745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are
possible this morning. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across portions of the
Concho Valley and Hill Country have exhibited episodic
intensification with volumetric radar data indicating some mid-level
rotation with the strongest storms. The 12z DRT sounding suggests
that convection is likely rooted around 850 mb, with modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates of around 7.5 degrees C/km contributing to
MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, at least in the Edwards Plateau region.
However, more recent RAP-based forecast soundings suggest that
parcel buoyancy is considerably weaker (500-1000 J/kg) farther east
within the immediate inflow region of the ongoing storms, which may
tend to limit the overall intensity of that convective regime.=20
Nonetheless, the presence of 55-65 kt of effective bulk shear will
be supportive of transient supercell structures, potentially capable
of marginally severe hail.=20

Current thinking is that any severe weather threat is expected to
remain too limited in areal coverage and magnitude to warrant the
issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Mead.. 04/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mO_T72LpB_4uRTyaEGSWDKoGTNehh-WKtdEFQKD403OSiJbsOeGXDlGMN8lkivbRuT8sw_EB= jeoi2JgcAErytGk2TQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31160059 31510028 31579831 31639608 31219572 30589592
30289822 30620024 31160059=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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