ACUS11 KWNS 301702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301702=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-301900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Texas into much of southern/coastal Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301702Z - 301900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing along a cold front will
pose a risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds this
afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorm development along a west-east oriented cold front
currently analyzed across southern/coastal Louisiana into
southeastern Texas, with additional development expected through the
afternoon. The greatest severe potential exists along and south of
the surface front where greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE per
latest mesoanalysis) exists owing to surface temperatures near 80 F
and dewpoints in the mid-70s, with only weakly unstable profiles
(500 J/kg MUCAPE) based around 850 mb north of the surface front.
Elongated hodographs and strong westerly flow aloft evident in the
HDC VWP are contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear that
will support at least some potential for marginally severe hail and
gusty winds despite only modestly favorable thermodynamic profiles
(mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km per the 12z LIX observed
sounding and latest RAP forecast soundings). Isolated gusty/damaging
winds are also possible with any stronger downdrafts, but generally
weak low-level lapse rates should largely temper wind gust severity.
Modest 0-3 km CAPE (50-75 J/kg per regional forecast soundings) in
the presence of enhanced surface vorticity along the surface cold
front may also promote some potential for an isolated
landspout/waterspout with stronger updrafts. Watch issuance is
unlikely owing to the expected limited magnitude of severe
potential.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7tXsrMh-zVdSuDKYQ0GUl5FshJGowfi0js4jbclmr_aluVD8UP5Xqqd_bBzT1ZqV_HmyNDy98= vo3UoEZMM2SwkK1b40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29429214 29579283 29679319 29699348 29639377 29849390
30189407 30619404 30949391 31049362 30989282 30809174
30679082 30528994 30258906 30018860 29668859 29248873
28958909 28868950 28989090 29179131 29429214=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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