ACUS11 KWNS 261838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261838=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...southeast Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...and
southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261838Z - 262045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe weather potential is expected to increase across
the area this afternoon. Large hail up to 1.5-1.75" and severe wind
gusts of 60-65 mph appear to be the primary hazards. Convective
trends are being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite indicate deepening
cumulus along an outflow boundary from near the Arkansas City to
Independence, KS vicinities into southwest MO, north of Joplin. The
air mass to the south of the boundary has warmed into the 80s,
which, coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is resulting in
MLCAPE of 1500-2500+ J/kg, per latest objective analysis.
Large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous with the
movement of several MCVs to the east of the region and no apparent
upstream disturbances in water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, the
presence of modest low-level warm advection observed by the KSGF VWP
may be sufficient to support eventual storm development in the
vicinity of the outflow boundary.

Area VWPs and forecast soundings suggest deep-layer shear will be on
the margins of that supportive of supercell storm modes. That,
coupled with only modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, should limit
hail size to 1.5-1.75". Damaging wind potential may ultimately be of
greater concern owing to the very moist environment and potential
for water-loaded downdrafts. A brief tornado is possible given
sizable 0-3 km CAPE and ambient vorticity in the vicinity of the
boundary. Otherwise, generally modest low-level shear should limit
the overall tornado potential.

Convective trends are being monitored for the potential issuance of
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Jh02u8J5fhrNP9N0Sz6mlS89ZSWLeMUhsO0HuIWN9nDjDFQP7FToiKikfVUDsyQJUb2B2ZRR= Uhdlr9WTyWilGY9iU0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 37609617 37949483 38119345 37889279 37269258 36779311
36619422 36709550 36839620 36919655 37159666 37609617=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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