ACUS11 KWNS 261937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261937=20
DEZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-262130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...central Virginia into the Delmarva

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261937Z - 262130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for locally damaging wind gusts is expected
to increase across the discussion area this afternoon into early
evening. The areal coverage and magnitude of the threat are expected
to remain too limited for a watch consideration.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate gradually strengthening
storms along the Blue Ridge Mountains in northern VA with additional
storms noted in southeast WV. East of the high terrain, a relatively
warm and moist air mass is present with steep low-level lapse rates
and MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg indicated in latest objective
analyses. The presence of a westerly, deep-layer wind field should
support the eastward movement of storms across the discussion area
with the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent potentially
limiting overall storm coverage.

The KRLX and KLWX VWPs indicate 30-35 kt winds above 5 km, which are
boosting vertical shear generally along and north of that latitude.
That modest shear enhancement may contribute to some briefly
organized storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Relatively
warm mid-level temperatures and resultant poor lapse rates should
limit large hail potential.

Given the expected isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not
anticipated.

..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_zb7VVUEIR_w89_2b2A7Ys_PbSBxWqBDgiQsK6CLLiYsLqwTV91aUwQUi_LIHKQJy8wt9UZPr= Yy7tyDIA2dDl7BiWAM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37917993 38317971 38907858 39347734 39357633 39097564
38577537 37957594 37637758 37397828 37357879 37407922
37537966 37917993=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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