ACUS11 KWNS 262037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262036=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and
western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262036Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe storms capable of locally
damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes appears to be increasing.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently
intensified in the vicinity of I-55 near Cape Girardeau, on the
southwest flank of a large-scale convective system collocated with
an MCV. The ambient environment is quite moist and moderately
unstable with MLCAPE estimated in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. The
storms have exhibited some rotation amidst a modestly sheared
environment, per the current KPAH VWP. However, latest short-term
model guidance suggests that a southwesterly low-level jet will
gradually strengthen late this afternoon into early evening, which
will contribute to some increase in low-level shear. As such,
tornado potential may tend to increase over the next hour or two,
along with a risk for damaging wind gusts.

Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance.

..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72MwfRI6c8twKjyS7kL1ibmEovF9QiXYkxH_2KwWJ659hN4eGEURKM1n7MChZR0jcRbDY3Xct= pRvMWj352OpR9kJv38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

LAT...LON 37239022 37658998 37888927 37948842 37688788 37098792
36838813 36638862 36618910 36688951 36858999 37239022=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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