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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1337

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 26 20:56:57 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 262056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262056=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-262300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1337
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

    Areas affected...portions of central Montana and far northern
    Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262056Z - 262300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts may
    occur across portions of central Montana and far northern Wyoming. A
    watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A large trough is in place across the northwestern
    CONUS with an attendant jet max ejecting across the northern
    Rockies, and associated lee troughing as brought moisture westward
    to the High Plains of Montana and Wyoming. With this overlap in lift
    and moisture, storms have developed along the high terrain of
    southern/central Montana and northwest Wyoming. Due to the jet max,
    deep layer shear should be sufficient for supercells once convection
    moves onto the High Plains.

    With the strong deep layer shear and low freezing levels, large hail
    may occur with the strongest storms. As the afternoon and evening
    progress, storms may cluster, and the deeply-mixed boundary layer
    and strong low-level flow may promote a threat for severe gusts. One
    potential limiting factor may be widespread cloud cover and
    associated inhibition, which may limit downward momentum transfer
    needed for severe winds. Despite this, a watch may be needed to
    cover this threat.

    ..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_MwjgysLaPSkJaz9821VRh4Y6x1cXb27y-Ewdq3UGA4ALlRbdXFHRxUVI_WAXA0MlMKJ-lRKv= CKi0mUWP0bAxPFDKEw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 44840984 45311087 45971135 47451115 47921018 47920915
    47580809 46790712 46100688 45250729 44750855 44840984=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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