ACUS11 KWNS 262228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262228=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...parts of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles...northwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262228Z - 270030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development is underway and
could persist into at least the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, accompanied
by potential for producing large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts.

DISCUSSION...A subtle short wave perturbation migrating around the
northern periphery of subtropical ridging may be suppressing
otherwise larger-scale mid-level height rises across the region, as thunderstorm development begins to initiate, aided by at least a
couple zones of stronger low-level convergence/confluence within lee
surface troughing. This is occurring in the presence of modest
westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 20 kt, but veering of
winds with height in lower to mid-levels may be contributing to
sufficient shear for organized thunderstorm development.

Mid-level thermodynamic profiles are also relatively warm, but the boundary-layer is characterized by seasonably high moisture content.
This appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg.=20
It remains unclear how long, and the extent to which, mid-level
inhibition will continue to be overcome. However, the evolution of
supercell structures appears possible during the next few hours.

..Kerr.. 06/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9JwHr8W8zameIYbDG7fQy6I9VbrwyUwVqH8kre0JFqv789rFZMBSbaDLfhToufipu1kMXkP0D= rxSpX1lx3Wv1sTWKXQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 36780050 36820007 36909894 36629753 35809786 35379925
35270064 35960077 36540103 36780050=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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