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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1341

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 26 23:14:58 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 262314
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262314=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-270045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1341
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0614 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana into northern/central
    Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262314Z - 270045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A loosely organized band of thunderstorms may bring an
    isolated threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of convection has developed
    downstream of a subtle, remnant MCV analyzed north of the lower Ohio
    Valley. Latest radar imagery from KLVX depicts a well-defined cold
    pool associated with this band. Transient, weak rotation has also
    been occasionally noted with this convection. Thus, at least some
    potential for isolated damaging wind gusts may accompany this band
    for the next 1-2 hours. A modest strengthening of a southwesterly
    low-level jet and clockwise low-level hodograph curvature (as
    sampled by the LVX VWP) downstream of this band also suggest that a
    brief, embedded tornado may be possible. The need for a WW remains
    unclear due to uncertainty regarding the persistence/intensity of
    this band owing to the loss of diurnal heating and only weak
    instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per objective analysis).
    Trends will continue to be monitored, and a targeted WW may be
    considered should a corridor of locally greater severe potential
    become evident.

    ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/26/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7c1-Ye0ZuHvfB_vPAKUBgY0p2ceJ7fgGy_J-IuZTZj6lSnRk6jrz1S41VnRNlD0Q-D2RqjZnM= MR0i3N-rVf-5ogn7fc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 38058708 38358716 38558703 38758640 38918555 38908503
    38828475 38668454 38398441 38088444 37708464 37488514
    37378602 37328651 37388674 37808699 38058708=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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