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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1345

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 27 02:03:29 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 270203
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270202=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-270400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1345
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0902 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

    Areas affected...parts of southeastern Colorado...southwestern
    Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

    Valid 270202Z - 270400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may organize further and
    become accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to
    severe gusts through 10-11 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to grow upscale within a
    narrow corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across
    the high plains. Southeastward across southwestern Kansas into
    northwestern Oklahoma, this is focused along a remnant baroclinic
    zone associated with stronger differential daytime heating. The
    boundary layer has begun to slowly cool either side of this
    baroclinic zone, and there appears at least subtle continuing
    warming associated with elevated mixed-layer air spreading east of
    the Rockies, contributing to increasing inhibition. However,
    another weak short wave impulse on the southern fringe of the
    westerlies is slowly overspreading the Raton Mesa/ridging vicinity,
    which may suppress larger-scale mid-level height rise this evening.=20

    Given favorable deep-layer shear, due to pronounced veering of
    low-level east-southeasterly flow to modest westerlies, there
    appears at least some potential for convection to organize further
    as it continues to consolidate. This may be accompanied by a
    strengthening cold pool, which should tend to propagate
    east-southeastward along the low-level baroclinic zone.

    ..Kerr.. 06/27/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dphGxH2gMiksbDXeZIrdY_WVQc4vf1VfGgfso7iQBF098leWUIPUa5FQHmibZXCr4lBtJ2yw= NdAy90-rWWN-L7NFqs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37960220 38430168 37119991 36620113 36980206 37560246
    37960220=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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