ACUS11 KWNS 101545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101544
NYZ000-PAZ000-101745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...western into central New York and north-central
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...

Valid 101544Z - 101745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase early this afternoon
with storms located immediately ahead of an MCV. An additional
downstream watch may become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a well-defined MCV, a broken band of
thunderstorms has persisted this morning across portions of western
NY and northwest PA. Considerable cloud cover has limited daytime
heating and resultant air mass destabilization so far today.
However, thinner clouds are allowing for stronger daytime heating
across portions of central NY into north-central PA, which should
allow for greater destabilization to occur with steepening low-level
lapse rates.

Dynamic forcing associated with the MCV is likely to sustain ongoing
storms, which may intensify as they continue east and encounter an
increasingly unstable environment. Earlier VWP observations near
Cleveland, OH and current storm motions of around 40 kt are
suggestive of a belt of enhanced westerly flow, generally in the 1-4
km layer, which coupled with steepening low-level lapse rates, may
support an increased potential for damaging wind gusts early this
afternoon.

..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_-WostccoNOCJ5XJFqaSR66fxG23ipNicfdSTVnvMbmQQKHnAEPi_qSA9pr64pawHUw-AU5uMD7cpUUVHgWi1_yvIjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 41437896 42177902 42337904 42937804 43097654 42637608
41987624 41527674 41387745 41437896

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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