ACUS11 KWNS 110331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110330
SDZ000-NDZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest North Dakota into northern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 110330Z - 110530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated convection developing across southwest North
Dakota may continue to intensify and pose a severe threat over the
next few hours, though confidence in exact evolution is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually intensifying to the west
of Bismarck, ND over the past 45 minutes, and a few additional
updrafts are noted to the southwest of this cell per GOES IR
imagery. This activity appears to be driven by weak ascent within a
diffuse low-level baroclinic zone draped from southwest ND
southeastward into SD based on recent upper-air analyses. Although
this activity is somewhat displaced to the north of the axis of
greater buoyancy (and is upstream of the cold pool associated with a
leading supercell in SD), the 00 UTC BIS RAOB and recent forecast
soundings suggest buoyancy should be adequate for sustained deep
convection downstream into south-central ND. Additionally, strong
deep-layer shear remains in place across the region and can support
intense supercell development (as evident by the aforementioned
supercell in SD, which matured in a similar kinematic environment).
Despite the favorable convective environment, it remains unclear
whether this emerging cell will remain isolated or if additional
convection will emerge within this zone and foster upscale growth
along the baroclinic zone into SD later tonight. Convective trends
will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed as
dictated by storm evolution and intensity.

..Moore/Mosier.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4DgczUGVPuaVTxYD9BfLFPBfdDfhajVeK2051PqSxPCq41KGghsAqs8onYKxE4uWHzWrVByJoaWS1_D0tCS1IQq6hYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45570379 46380319 46770250 46329853 46049819 45599830
45289877 45059933 44999957 45570379

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)