ACUS11 KWNS 282149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282149
MNZ000-NDZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Far southeastern North Dakota into far
northwest/west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282149Z - 282245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A very localized and low-confidence risk of damaging wind
gusts and a tornado is possible across parts of far southeastern
North Dakota into far northwestern/west-central Minnesota during the
next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster has evolved along an east/west-oriented warm front west of Fargo, ND. This storm has
shown transient signs of rotation/organization. While it is unclear
if the inflow for this activity is truly surface-based (given cool
surface temperatures along/north of the warm front), the MVX VWP
shows a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250 m2/s2 0-1
km SRH), which will conditionally support embedded low-level
mesocyclones and some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado if
storms can root near the surface. Overall, confidence in this
scenario is low and any risk should remain spatially localized for
the next hour or so.

..Weinman/Hart.. 09/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4AToTRsu2AAejYdnTScqYrr01g2ZO0KCYi6NwXKYEvo7yLgsHLZYmLDaMICu7MygygEPrjtFg5L3DWf93-Lvj4PRdPw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON 46789745 47029710 47059659 46959610 46749598 46439601
46319640 46349700 46439740 46659753 46789745

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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