ACUS11 KWNS 292027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292026
NMZ000-AZZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292026Z - 292200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or brief tornado may occur with one of the
stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should remain
sparse, with a WW issuance not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Clearing skies and boundary-layer heating/mixing ahead
of a confluence zone, accompanying an approaching inverted surface
trough, will support continued gradual convective intensification
through the day. MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown strengthening
storms over eastern Pima to eastern Cochise counties over the past
hours. With surface temperatures reaching 70+ F in spots, amid low
60s F dewpoints, additional storm development is likely ahead of a
developing 500 mb low over southeastern AZ. Buoyancy exceeds 500
J/kg MLCAPE over this region, along with 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear. Any of the stronger storms that can root into the boundary
layer may become surface based and spawn either a brief tornado or
severe gust. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe
threat. A WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9j-8WKtsy7tIF85y61ChLMaQb7cHxkLNCsjOln2-UVHOHvOEjNIZO_jOPP7tjurlhDI4xeUh6cpJtJZRC1STsuS6al4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

LAT...LON 31610908 31310922 31250978 31241043 31231075 31291100
31461100 32221085 32721040 32980978 32990935 32750906
32220900 31610908

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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