ACUS01 KWNS 291207
SWODY1
SPC AC 291205

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts
of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered damaging winds
and large hail are the main threats, with isolated very large hail
possible across portions of Texas.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

A broad zone of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will persist today
over much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast. Multiple weak embedded perturbations aloft moving from
northern Mexico across the southern Plains should encourage isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day along/near a
surface front draped from west-central TX to southern AR. A rather
moist low-level airmass remains in place along/south of this
boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s.
Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moisture are supporting up to
2000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE across TX, with somewhat lesser values into
the lower MS Valley.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in convective
coverage and intensity this morning through the afternoon as the
weak mid-level shortwave impulses develop eastward across the warm
sector, with multiple zones of initiation possible along/near the
front. Regardless of where thunderstorms form, the moderate to very
strong instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels should support a threat for large hail with any
persistent supercells. This hail threat should be greater across TX
(with isolated 2+ inch diameter hailstones possible here), but
isolated severe hail may occur as far east as the central/southern
AL vicinity. A tendency for thunderstorms to cluster and pose a
greater damaging wind threat may focus across parts of the lower MS
Valley, generally along/southwest of ongoing convection occurring
this morning in east-central MS to northern/central AL. Given
increased confidence in convection initiating and being sustained, a
Slight Risk for the hail/wind threat has been introduced from parts
of TX to southern AL with this update.

...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...

Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Filtered diurnal heating will result in
generally 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater possible in NC).
Despite this weak instability, strong deep-layer shear should aid in
transient organization of the more robust cores that can form. An
isolated threat for hail and damaging winds remains apparent. 0-1 km
SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low could
also support a brief tornado.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/29/2026

$$

--- ScorpioBBS/QWK v0.32a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 021217
SWODY1
SPC AC 021216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

...Northern/Central Florida into far southeast Georgia...

Regional radar imagery shows a broad area of precipitation extending
from the northeast Gulf northeastward through the Carolinas.
Thunderstorms are ongoing within the southern portion of this
precipitation shield, from the northeast Gulf into central and
eastern FL Panhandle. This region is just downstream of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and in the vicinity of an associated
surface low. Stronger ascent and modest buoyancy is favoring deeper
updrafts across this region compared to areas farther north.

Updrafts in this area have been fairly transient overnight and for
the first few hours this morning, likely resulting from a
combination of modest buoyancy, boundary-parallel deep-layer shear,
and elevated storm structures. Some improvement in storm
organization appears possible over the next few hours as the
low-level flow strengthens and convergence near the surface low
augments large-scale ascent. This better storm organization should
result in stronger updrafts and longer overall updraft persistence,
with an attendant increase in the risk for damaging gusts.
Additionally, there is enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two if surface-based storms can be realized.
Surface-based storms appear most probable over the northwest FL
vicinity and a small 5% tornado probability was delineated to
highlight this potential.

This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #0635.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/02/2026

$$

--- ScorpioBBS/QWK v0.32a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 231240
SWODY1
SPC AC 231238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of
damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep
South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin
into the northern Intermountain region.

...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas...
Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast in the vicinity of a High
Plains surface front and dryline this afternoon with temperatures
reaching the mid 90s to around 105 F. The hot temperatures will
combine with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s and modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield a narrow axis of moderate instability
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across western Kansas southward into
western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Forcing for ascent
preceding a shortwave trough is expected to contribute to isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon from the vicinity
of the thermal low in southeast Colorado to along the front and
dryline from northeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

Forecast soundings along the front feature a vertically veering wind
profile with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient
for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail. In contrast, the storms forming in the hot, deeply
mixed air mass west of the boundary are more likely to produce
sporadic severe wind gusts. A corridor of more concentrated severe
wind gusts may materialize across portions of southwest Kansas by
evening, particularly if organized cold pool development occurs with
an evening time low-level jet increase.

...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...
As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot
and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Similar to
Wednesday, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon within an environment characterized by 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PW content.
As such, the potential will exist for locally damaging downburst
winds as storms spread west-southwestward along the coast into Deep
South Texas during the afternoon and evening.

...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West...
Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds
strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in
conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance,
will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate
environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance
vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail.

...Eastern Carolinas...
A very moist air mass and cloud breaks to the south of
front-associated convection early today across North Carolina should
allow for at least moderate destabilization across parts of the
coastal plain. This may result in a corridor of more concentrated
thunderstorm development, near the intersection of the outflow from
the morning storms with the sea-breeze boundary. Modest deep-layer
shear will coincide with steepening low-level lapse rates and high
PW content to yield locally intense wet microbursts capable of
damaging winds this afternoon until around sunset.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 07/23/2026

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
* Origin: capitolcityonlinet.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)