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  • Flooding possib OK/TX/AR

    From mike powell@618:250/6 to All on Tue May 19 15:12:00 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 191409
    FFGMPD
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191930-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0190
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1008 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas into Arkansas

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 191407Z - 191930Z

    Summary...Isolated flash flooding possible over southeast Oklahoma
    into northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas through the early
    afternoon. Slowing progression of organized thunderstorms should
    allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with up to 4 inches
    possible in three hours over this previously parched area.

    Discussion...Prefrontal organized activity over southeast OK is
    oriented parallel to the southwesterly low level flow. This has
    caused a slowing to progression and longer duration of heavy rain
    over east-central OK. Continued new development merging in with
    this line will allow a flash flood threat to shift to northeast TX
    through midday. MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg and PW of 1.6 inches will
    maintain rapid development and heavy rainfall rates of 2 to
    possibly 3 inches per hour. This area has been dry for the past
    week, so flash flood guidance is quite high. Flash flooding should
    be restricted to the areas with the highest rainfall and in
    urbanized areas that get at least a few inches. Recent RRFS runs
    have been heavier than the HRRR which seem reasonble as the HRRRs
    have been underdoing current activity. Areas ahead of the cold
    front will continue to be monitored given the unstable and moist environment.

    Jackson

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

    $$

    --- Scorpio BBS
    * Origin: (618:250/6)