ACUS03 KWNS 060731
SWODY3
SPC AC 060730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday
across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi,
Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including
tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur.
Some of the tornadoes may be strong.

...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward
across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The
primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN
through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low
across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS
Valley.

A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent
from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the
OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very
favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is
forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense
bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe
convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late
Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as
ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly
destabilizing warm sector.

Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large
hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging
winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection
spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A
moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the
mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level
shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will
be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear
environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat
is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the
lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians
through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening.

Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such
area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the
cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough
extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe
threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal.

..Gleason.. 05/06/2024

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