ACUS11 KWNS 271553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271553 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-271800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE...
central/western PA...NJ...and NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271553Z - 271800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2
hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are
possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north
ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability
will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where
dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent
into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting
organized bands of convection is already in place across the region.
A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection
increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely
remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and
backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into
eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this
area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard
through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will
likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger
destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads
the region.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON 45057540 44787471 42487405 40527353 37787411 37767592
37877795 38037854 38547872 40997745 43887704 44547643
45057540


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