AWUS01 KWNH 092331
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...north-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092328Z - 100445Z

SUMMARY...An axis of extreme rainfall, stretching from the Tampa
metropolitan region northeastward into the north-central FL
Peninsula, is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic
flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property.
6-hr rainfall totals of at least 5-8 inches with hourly rainfall
in the 2-3 in/hr range are expected.

DISCUSSION...The 23Z update from NHC placed the center of
Hurricane Milton 35 miles WSW of Sarasota, FL. Local radar imagery
at 23Z from KTBW showed the heaviest rain located within what is
effectively the northern eyewall which has pushed ashore and arced
from Manatee into southern Hillsborough and much of Pinellas
counties with MRMS and gauge data showing 1-2 in/hr rainfall
rates. Portions of St. Petersburg to Bradenton have already picked
up 5-8 inches of rain since midnight and flash flooding is
ongoing. Farther east, an outer rain band had largely moved
offshore of the eastern Peninsula but was arcing northwestward
ashore just north of Cape Canaveral with 4-8 inches already
reported across Brevard County.

An axis of strong low level convergence tied to the northern
eyewall, extending northeast from the center of Milton to Volusia
County (just north of the forecast track of Milton) will support a
prolonged period of high rainfall rates, 1-2 in/hr but locally in
the 2 to 3+ in/hr range, with the axis training from WSW to ENE
and slowly lifting north with time. Some locations could
experience rainfall rates in excess of 1 in/hr for 2-4 hours,
causing rapid rises of water above the surface as water will not
have sufficient time to drain, especially across the mostly
impervious surfaces of the St. Petersburg into the Tampa metro and
possibly nearing Orlando later tonight. Additional rainfall of at
least 5-8 inches is expected from St. Petersburg, northeastward
into the central Peninsula where the WoFS has consistently painted
high probabilities of exceeding 5 inches of rainfall. The 22Z WoFS
cycle indicated 50 to 90 percent probabilities of 5+ inches and
90th percentile (reasonable worse case scenario) values of 7-10
inches. Major to locally catastrophic flash flooding is expected
as a result of these high rainfall rates.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 29888111 29688103 28598054 28528063 28238143
27798205 27438295 27898313 28898262 29318212
29678163
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AWUS01 KWNH 021025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...central west coast of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021023Z - 021500Z

Summary...Localized/urban flash flooding will be possible along
the west coast of FL, from roughly Tampa Bay to Naples through
about 15Z. Spotty 3 to 5+ inch totals will be possible, with much
of that potentially falling within a 1 to 2 hour window.

Discussion...Regional radar and infrared satellite imagery at 10Z
showed a west-east axis of thunderstorms extending from the
eastern Gulf through the central FL Peninsula, located out ahead
of a mid-level shortwave approaching from the central Gulf Coast.
This region of FL was located within a low level confluent axis
along a stationary front that extended from just south of Cape
Canaveral to just south of Tampa Bay. While convergent 925-850 mb
winds were fairly weak (up to ~10 kt), the environment over the
central Peninsula contained 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5 to 1.8
inches of PW and estimated wet bulb zero heights just over 12 kft
(via SPC mesoanalysis and RAP data), capable of efficient rainfall
production. Several rain gauge reports near the coast between
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor have shown rainfall rates near 1
inch in 15 minutes with 1-2 inch totals reported as of 10Z.

Mean westerly flow and low dewpoint depressions at the surface
will promote occasional instances of west-east training with
minimal outflow generation over the next few hours, until daytime
heating begins to alter the boundary layer and the continued
approach of the upstream shortwave affects low level wind
direction/speed, interfering with the convergence axis. Until that
happens (~14 to 15Z), an isolated threat for flash flooding will
occur within the urban corridor of the western Peninsula from
roughly Tampa Bay to Naples, where localized potential for 3-5
inches of rain will exist.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27798182 27628129 27308135 27058175 26438155
26208202 26548254 27228294 27578280 27728248

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