ACUS11 KWNS 291254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291254
FLZ000-291500-

Mesoscale Discussion 2317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Areas affected...the FL Keys and extreme south Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291254Z - 291500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A waterspout moving onshore as a tornado is possible
across parts of the Keys into the far south Florida Peninsula
through midday.

DISCUSSION...An MCV has been drifting east in the offshore waters,
west of the southern Everglades and north of the Lower Keys, this
morning. The airmass to its south, across the Keys, has maintained
mid to upper 70s surface temperatures coupled with low 70s dew
points. The 12Z KEY sounding sampled this air mass well, which is
characterized by poor mid-level lapse rates but MLCAPE near 1000
J/kg. While low-level shear within the sounding and BYX VWP data has
been modest and is expected to remain so, veering of the wind
profile with height is yielding a favorable environment for
occasional supercell structures within a regenerative storm cluster.
As this activity likely drifts closer to land through midday, a
brief tornado is possible.

..Grams/Edwards.. 12/29/2024

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 24938214 25198139 25298074 25338028 25168023 24898046
24588121 24428178 24618236 24938214

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ACUS11 KWNS 311431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311430
FLZ000-311700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Parts of South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311430Z - 311700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging wind gusts may
accompany thunderstorms as they spread/develop east-southeastward
across South FL through mid afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Morning surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented cold
front moving slowly southward toward Lake Okeechobee in South FL.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along/north of the front, with additional
development south of the front within broadly confluent (albeit
veered) low-level flow. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, diurnal
heating of a moist air mass (beneath high-level clouds) is
contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of storms.
This, combined with around 35 kt of unidirectional 0-6 km shear,
will favor a couple loosely organized thunderstorm clusters (both
along and ahead of the front) -- capable of producing strong to
locally damaging winds gusts. The overall severe threat is expected
to remain too marginal/localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 26718208 27388087 27518051 27538032 27298011 26697995
26068006 25938025 25908116 26088178 26548211 26718208

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

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