ACUS11 KWNS 161331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161331
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-161500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...far southern South Carolina...and
northern Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...52...

Valid 161331Z - 161500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51, 52 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado threat to continue through the
morning.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded supercells continues to
move east across the Southeast. Instability is mostly weak (250-500
J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of this line with slightly better instability
across north Florida where upper 60s dewpoints are present. This
line of storms has now moved well ahead of the synoptic cold front.
Therefore, given the weakening forcing, the strongest storms will
likely be in north Florida this morning. However, very strong
low-level shear is present ahead of the entire line of storms with
over 400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per CLX VWP where a 60 knot low-level jet
is present. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging wind gusts
and brief tornadoes will be possible through the morning despite the
relatively weak instability and forcing.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 29598426 30548354 31738248 32138206 32538172 32868161
33228139 33438078 33247988 32997957 32827953 32528005
32228044 31898086 31138126 30518134 30208132 29728233
29418306 29598426

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

ACUS11 KWNS 121250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121250
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-121415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Areas affected...Eastern GA into parts of SC and north FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 50...

Valid 121250Z - 121415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

SUMMARY...The wind-damage and brief tornado threat may continue
eastward through the morning.

DISCUSSION...Some decrease in convective vigor has been noted with
the long-lived QLCS moving across parts of east GA and FL Panhandle.
However, low-level rotation continues to occasionally be noted along
portions of the line, especially across parts of
east-central/southeast GA, where an evolution to more of a
semi-discrete mode has occurred. Modest downstream destabilization
and ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave
trough may help to sustain organized convection through the morning,
with some wind-damage and brief-tornado threat spreading into parts
of SC and southeast GA.

Lightning activity has diminished with the southern portion of the
line approaching north FL, but strong low-level flow may continue to
support at least a localized damaging-wind threat through the
morning. Parts of north FL will be monitored for an uptick in
convective intensity later today, due to potential for somewhat
stronger diurnal destabilization in this area.

..Dean.. 03/12/2026

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31008300 32148218 33218250 34158217 34648181 34918155
34978097 34988070 34718042 34208035 33158061 31868113
30978156 30318181 29918236 29858281 29808330 29988375
30188368 30738320 31008300

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)