ACUS11 KWNS 191054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191054
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-191600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central KS into central/eastern NE...northwest IA...and extreme southeast SD/south-central MN

Concerning...Blizzard

Valid 191054Z - 191600Z

SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions will gradually spread eastward through
the morning. Snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour are possible, along
with widespread 50-60+ mph gusts.

DISCUSSION...Blizzard conditions are ongoing this morning from southwest/south-central NE into western KS, to the northwest of a
powerful 987 mb cyclone centered over northeast KS. Very strong
deep-layer ascent will continue to support heavy precipitation
rates through the morning, aided by very favorable low/midlevel
frontogenesis, and the presence of elevated buoyancy and
regenerative convection along the eastern periphery of heavier
precipitation, near the midlevel dry slot. The heaviest
precipitation rates will gradually shift eastward through the
morning, in conjunction with the movement of the cyclone, while
low-level cold advection and strong ascent result in cooling of the
column and a changeover to snow in areas that are currently in the
mid/upper 30s F.

Meanwhile, very strong low-level flow increasing to near/above 70 kt
at 1 km AGL (as noted on the KUEX VWP) will continue to support wind
gusts in the 50-70 mph range (as already noted through the night
across parts of KS/NE), resulting in widespread blowing snow and
blizzard conditions.

Short-term guidance generally suggests that the heaviest snow rates
will become focused from central/northern KS into northeast
NE/northwest IA later this morning. Areas within the most intense
snow bands may experience rates of 1-2+ inches per hour, along with
wind gusts near/above 60 mph, near-zero visibility, and occasional
lightning. A rather sharp gradient in snow rates is expected along
the eastern periphery of the heavier precipitation, though the very
strong wind gusts may result in blizzard conditions even in areas
that experience only light to moderate snow.

..Dean.. 03/19/2025

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...
DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38510077 40719967 42119789 43089633 43699472 43879405
43959356 42839368 42219429 40569637 39399748 38399811
38009859 37749935 37659990 37690043 37810075 38510077

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