MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 301604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301604
ILZ000-MOZ000-301800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...East-central/southeast Missouri...southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301604Z - 301800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed, particularly for areas near
and east of the Mississippi River. All severe hazards are possible
with a mix of linear segments and supercells.

DISCUSSION...A prominent shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery in central Missouri. Tied to this feature, weak convection
has been slowly deepening in parts of eastern Missouri as it moves northeastward. Downstream of this, temperatures in southern/central
Illinois have risen into the low 70s F given the more broken cloud
cover. The general consensus of short-term CAM guidance is that
convection will strengthen in the vicinity of the Mississippi River.
This seems reasonable given current environmental trends. That being
said, the need for a watch in the short term is not entirely
certain. Potential for a watch in the next couple of hours,
particularly for portions of southern Illinois, are higher than
points to the west.

Storm mode is expected to be a mix of linear segments, especially
with northward extent, and some supercells (more likely towards the
Ohio Valley). Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to
very-large hail with initial or sustained supercells. Fast moving
storms and enhanced low-level flow will promote swaths of wind
damage. The tornado threat is somewhat less clear, but will be
maximized with any discrete storms. Line-embedded circulations/QLCS
tornadoes are also possible given sufficient low-level hodograph
curvature. A strong tornado or two could occur.

A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon. Exact timing is
not clear and some locations west of the River may not destabilize
enough in the short term for an organized severe threat.

..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37079078 37259107 37579124 38099134 38649120 39069083
39749035 40118977 40188936 40118870 39698827 38438813
37738856 37128987 37079078

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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[there have been tornadoes on the ground in this area.]

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 172005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172004
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-172100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 172004Z - 172100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the eastern portions of
Missouri may bring the potential for all severe hazards this
afternoon/evening. Watch issuance may be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is ongoing across
portions of eastern Missouri along a weak confluence zone. Storms
have been somewhat slow to strengthen thus far (perhaps owing to a
lingering warm layer around 750 mb). While stronger upper-level
forcing remains displaced to the north and west, forecast soundings
indicate isolation will continue to erode any lingering inhibition.
While some uncertainty remains regarding convective intensification,
the environment ahead of these storms is conditionally favorable for supercells.

Surface temperatures in the low/mid-80s F with dewpoints in the
mid-60s are contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. 35-45 kts of
effective bulk shear will support supercell structures with
thunderstorms that can become more well established. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and elongated hodographs sampled by the 18z TOP/DVN
observed soundings and recent ACARS profiles from STL will support
the potential for large hail of 1-2" in diameter. Steep low-level
lapse rates (8+ C/km) will also promote strong downdraft wind gusts
with thunderstorms. With time, some increase in tornado risk appears
possible owing to a strengthening of the nocturnal low-level jet.
Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance
may be needed soon.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 04/17/2026

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 38259145 38449196 38919229 39449222 40129204 40589127
40519028 40148955 39698896 39038870 38488917 38058994
38169075 38259145

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

=3D =3D =3D
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