ACUS01 KWNS 291238
SWODY1
SPC AC 291237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are
expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts
of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and
a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The
northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a
more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress
southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave
trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the
southern High Plains.

Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake
Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front
continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and
through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress
eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent
shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The
attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH
and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion
of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress,
with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective
outflow throughout the day.

Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the
eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the
southern Plains near the stalled boundary.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks
this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It
seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts
with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional
thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of
this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes.

Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will
be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell
and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also
accompany any persistent supercell structures.

...West TX into the Ozarks...
Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the
thunderstorms that developed along the front over
northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance
suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across
the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive
of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours.

Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both
along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and
along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west
TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level
convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the
primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm
proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to
significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential
may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX,
but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface
low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher
tornado probabilities.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021258
SWODY1
SPC AC 021257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of
central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley...
A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the
overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and
Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely
paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern
Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially
exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially
spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western
Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development
will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio
Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing
low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately
unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be
expected regionally this afternoon into evening.

Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable
drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data
after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with
moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak
heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the
potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail
possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards
Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also
increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this
evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South
Texas tonight.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 180542
SWODY1
SPC AC 180540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected
later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. The
potential for a few strong tornadoes exists across parts of Kansas
and Oklahoma.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Strong upper trough is digging southeast across the Great Basin
early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the
Four Corners region by 18z as 500mb speed max translates across AZ
into NM. By early evening, strongest mid-level flow is forecast to
extend across northeast NM into western KS. This evolution will
suppress the height field across the central High Plains such that
large-scale forcing will likely influence the dry line as far south
as I-40 near the TX/OK border.

While several 00z models struggle to develop convection along the
dry line, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the
southern High Plains. Zero-3km lapse rates will approach dry
adiabatic by late afternoon as surface temperatures soar through the
mid 90s across the eastern TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains. As
a result, deep thermals are expected and isolated thunderstorms
should develop as CINH will prove minimal.

Scattered convection is currently noted across northeast OK into
southeast KS/southwest MO. This activity will likely persist into
the early parts of the day1 period. Strongest low-level moisture
surge should be across western OK into extreme southwest KS as LLJ
will focus across this portion of the Plains early in the period.
While early-day convection may generate locally severe hail/wind,
the primary concern for severe will be with late-day convection.
Current thinking is strong heating along the dry line will prove
instrumental in thunderstorm development as convective temperatures
are breached, sometime after 22z. Primary corridor for initiation
should be across southwest KS into northwest OK. This activity will
be strongly sheared and supercells should mature quickly as they
move northeast toward/across the warm front draped downstream across
KS. Very large hail and tornadoes are certainly a concern with
surface-based convection, while hail is the primary concern with
elevated convection north of the warm front.

It's not entirely clear how much convection will develop along the
dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal
inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a
strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail.

Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a
secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO
into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO
into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to
boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong
low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it
spreads northeast during the overnight hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/18/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH
TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through
this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio
Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be
strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large
to isolated significant severe hail will be possible.

...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted,
large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas
southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several
thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of
convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS
Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a
gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley
eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight.

Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to
general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted
this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY
southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate
to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of
recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the
diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged
buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this
afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a
threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk
for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS
east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and
associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk
probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth
into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late
evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area.
Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to
account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting
through the evening.

...IL/IN...
Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper
speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates
will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into
the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid
MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south
of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells
and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe
and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this
activity diminishes during the evening.

..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening across
the southern Plains, especially within the Low Rolling Plains into
parts of North Texas. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards, with a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible.

...20Z Update...
The cluster of supercells that move through south-central Oklahoma
and North Texas earlier have diminished in intensity. In their wake
an outflow boundary has drifted southwestward into Northwest Texas
and parts of the Low Rolling Plains. Here, thunderstorms have
recently developed. Large buoyancy and moderate effective shear will
continue to support large/very large hail with the strongest storms.
Additional towering cumulus are developing in the South Plains along
the surface trough/dryline. This activity should intensify this
afternoon and tend to move east/southeast along the outflow
boundary. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Strong
mixing has been noted in central Texas where dewpoints have fallen
into the low 50s F in some places. As this air moves toward
convection farther north, storms may have some tendency to become
more outflow dominant. Should a more organized cluster/MCS develop,
wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025/

...Southern Plains including southern OK/northern Texas...
Initially elevated, scattered, upscale-growing storms have evolved
this morning across south-central Oklahoma. These storms will likely
persist south-southeastward along the baroclinic gradient,
potentially becoming increasingly surface based this afternoon.
Additional southwest-peripheral development is also anticipated
generally near the Red River as outflow/differential heating
interfaces with the synoptic boundary with an aggressively
destabilizing boundary layer, with upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE
plausible across far southwest Oklahoma into a broader part of
nearby north Texas.

Wind profiles will support supercells with the initial/renewed
development, with clusters otherwise persisting/evolving with the
ongoing Red River-vicinity storms and with anticipated additional
development later today across southwest Oklahoma into/across the
Low Rolling Plains of Texas. Very large hail is possible along with
damaging wind potential, and some tornado risk may exist as well,
although low-level shear/SRH will tend to remain modest overall.

...Southern/Eastern Florida...
Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a
large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough over the East. Deep westerly
flow favors an east coast sea breeze, and this should be where
convection focuses as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Localized severe gusts and large hail are the primary
threats with this diurnally maximized convection.

...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States...
Sufficient buoyancy coincident with moderately strong wind profiles
may support isolated severe low-topped storms this afternoon through
around sunset in vicinity of a secondary frontal zone/triple point.

...Central High Plains...
The eastward-migrating mid-level trough over the northern Rockies
will favor southeasterly low-level upslope flow into the central
High Plains. Modest moisture coupled with strong heating will yield
250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid-afternoon east of the Front Range. While
storms should remain relatively isolated, elongated straight-line
hodographs will support east-southeastward moving storms within an
environment featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km).
Isolated large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible.

...Northern Idaho/southwest Montana/northwest Wyoming...
Some stronger to locally severe low-topped storms may occur later
today within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of the
amplifying shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261238
SWODY1
SPC AC 261236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail
should occur with initial development in parts of west-central
Texas, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening.

...Edwards Plateau to the ArkLaTex...
A large complex of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of central/east TX into the ArkLaTex. Some of this activity
may be elevated and occurring to the north of an outflow boundary
from prior convection. Still, the southern portion of the line will
have access to greater instability, and may continue to pose an
isolated threat for severe/damaging winds this morning if it can
remain surface based. In the wake of this activity, strong daytime
heating is anticipated across west-central TX/the Edwards Plateau as
a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the
southern/central Plains through this evening. The front/composite
outflow boundary from convection farther east should decelerate and
stall over this region by the early afternoon, with a very moist
low-level airmass in place to its south. Strong to locally extreme
instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with
steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy.

Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate
along/near the boundary across west-central TX by 18-21Z and quickly
become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain weak, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with
height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This
will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development
this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in
diameter) appears likely. With time, clustering/upscale growth is
anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward. An
increasing threat for severe winds should develop as this mode
transition occurs across central TX and vicinity. Given increased
confidence in a focused corridor of very large hail and severe wind
potential this afternoon/evening, have introduced an Enhanced Risk
across parts of west-central TX with this update.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Extensive convective overturning occurred yesterday across much of
the lower MS Valley/Southeast. Outflow related to this convection
has settled well south into parts of northern/central LA and
southern MS/AL/GA, with a remnant MCV noted in northeast GA. The
potential for substantial destabilization to occur to the north of
this boundary (as some guidance suggests) remains questionable, as thunderstorms are still ongoing this morning across much of northern
LA into western MS. Still, the potential for at least weak
instability to develop remains apparent across parts of the central
Gulf Coast states. Isolated damaging winds should be the main threat
with any clusters that can either spread eastward from the ArkLaTex
or which develop separately this afternoon.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across
parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface
cold front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to
widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher
terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent
High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional severe hail
and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance
suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening
across eastern NM into northwest TX.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/26/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 301250
SWODY1
SPC AC 301249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms with wind damage, large hail,
and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast...
An Enhanced Risk for damaging thunderstorm winds has been introduced
with this outlook for portions of eastern GA, much of SC and
central/eastern NC.

A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward
from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this
shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move eastward
from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by evening. A trailing cold
front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and
Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening
cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be
tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover.

As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops
across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and near the cold front and move generally east. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests a predominantly linear mode across the Enhanced
Risk area, where confidence regarding greater destabilization is
highest. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe
hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing segments.

Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is
lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for
discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms
would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose
a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence
increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this
area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the
1630z Convective Outlook.

Along the Gulf Coast from southeast TX into the western FL
Panhandle, moderate/strong buoyancy and 25-30 kts of westerly shear
will be present. Here, scattered clusters of strong/severe storms
posing a risk for mainly damaging winds are expected to develop this
afternoon.

...Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet will
move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoon
and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, but
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
will support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and
evening. Localized damaging gusts and hail could accompany the
strongest storms.

...Eastern NM into Far West TX...
Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest boundary-layer
moisture across parts of NM and West TX. Moderate instability and 25
kt midlevel northwest flow could support a few strong storms capable
of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts this afternoon and evening.

..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/30/2025

$$
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