AWUS01 KWNH 031351
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0350
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031350Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely become more
concentrated over the next several hours across portions of
southern and eastern KS into west-central MO. Backbuilding and
locally training convection will favor the potential for enhanced
rainfall totals and thus concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
corridor of heavy showers and thunderstorms with cold convective
tops impacting areas of eastern KS, with the activity beginning to
move into areas of west-central MO. The activity is being
sustained by a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts out ahead
of a cold front, and with the pooling of a favorably moist and
unstable airmass. The ejection of a mid-level trough with
favorably divergent flow aloft over the region is also a key
player with the ongoing convective threat.

PWs of near 1.75 inches are in place which are about 2 standard
deviations above normal, and an instability axis is nosed up
across eastern KS with MUCAPE values of as high as 1500 to 2000
J/kg. Relatively strong low-level moisture convergence is noted,
and the early-morning visible satellite imagery shows an expanding
CU/TCU field down to the southwest of the current activity
involving areas of south-central to southeast KS.

Over the next few hours, there is likely to be the renewed
development and expansion of convection across eastern KS and into
west-central MO, with activity also likely developing down to the
southwest into areas of south-central to southeast KS. This is
consistent with the latest HRRR forecasts and also the 06Z HREF
guidance which strongly support rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour, with an environment conducive for backbuilding and
locally training convective cells.

Some rainfall totals through early this afternoon may reach 2 to 4
inches with isolated heavier amounts possible where cell-training
is maximized. The persistence of these rains may foster some
scattered areas of flash flooding which will include a threat for
some urban impacts.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39589338 38789297 38159397 37259619 36959759
37249852 38189800 39339536

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