ACUS01 KWNS 151236
SWODY1
SPC AC 151234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable
across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. A mix of
scattered severe/damaging winds and large hail should also occur
from the Upper Great Lakes to Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
A belt of stronger mid-level westerly flow will remain confined
generally along/north of the international border today. Even so,
multiple weak mid-level perturbations, some of which are related to prior/ongoing convection, will aid in additional thunderstorm
development later this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern/central Plains to upper Great Lakes. This convection will
also be aided by a slowly southward sagging cold front across SD
into NE, as a weak low develops northeastward across the Upper
Midwest into Canada along this boundary. As diurnal heating occurs
today, a moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass will
exist by this afternoon along/south of the front from NE into parts
of SD, MN, and the U.P. of MI. While stronger flow aloft will tend
to remain to the north of the front, there should still be
sufficient deep-layer shear across the warm sector for some updraft organization.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along
the front in MN by early afternoon, and quickly spread eastward
across northern WI, the U.P. of MI, and Lake Superior through the
rest of the afternoon into the evening. Sufficient instability and
effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to
support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail
will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms,
before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the
threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly
weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with
eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes.

A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate
along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely present
across this region compared to locations farther north, but
deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still,
some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and ample instability. The threat for
scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase
through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster
develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of
75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment.

...Great Basin into Wyoming...
The upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies
today will influence convective development this afternoon across
parts of the northern Great Basin and WY vicinity. High-based
convection that occurs across parts of eastern NV into UT will occur
in a relatively dry profile, with limited total precipitable water.
Still, a deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with weak instability
should support some risk for severe gusts with this activity as it
moves generally east-northeastward this afternoon/evening across the
northern Great Basin vicinity.

Greater low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the
low to mid 50s, is already present this morning over parts northern
WY. Convection that initially develops near Yellowstone in northwest
WY may grow upscale fairly quickly into an organized cluster given
25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly
severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level
lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. The Slight Risk
across WY has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest
guidance trends. This cluster should eventually weaken late this evening/tonight as it approaches the WY/NE/SD border vicinity.

...Arizona...
Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across
parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone
over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again
develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and
southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected
with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated
threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of
southern AZ through the evening.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/15/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 191302
SWODY1
SPC AC 191300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late evening.

...Coastal South-Central California...
Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 051302
SWODY1
SPC AC 051300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds will all be possible within
this corridor.

...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern CO through this evening, which will
promote continued northward transport of low-level moisture across
TX into OK/KS. A surface dryline will also extend southward from the
low over the southern High Plains. Daytime heating of this moist
airmass and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will support
the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
afternoon along/east of the dryline. Most guidance continues to
suggest that convective temperatures will be reached by 21-23Z
across the southern High Plains.

While large-scale ascent will remain fairly nebulous, current
expectations are for increasing low-level convergence along the
dryline and a strengthening southerly low-level jet to encourage
convective initiation across the eastern TX Panhandle and vicinity.
Forecast deep-layer shear around 40 kt will easily support
supercells with an associated threat for large to very large hail
initially (potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter). Increasing
low-level shear through the evening will also foster enlarged
low-level hodographs and the potential for a few tornadoes with this
activity. With time this evening, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern OK and southern/central KS.

Isolated severe hail may occur tonight with elevated convection
farther north in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern
NE/ northwest MO into IA. Farther south, isolated supercells may
also occur along the length of the dryline across west TX late this afternoon/evening, with associated threat for occasional large hail
and severe gusts. However, confidence in any more than isolated
coverage remains low due to weak large-scale forcing.

...Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the OH Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote
occasional damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that can
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.

...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the FL Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures will remain relatively cool. Scattered
convection appear probable along the western FL Peninsula during the
afternoon where low-level convergence will be maximized. Locally
strong wind gusts will be possible, though organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast owing to weak deep-layer shear.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 061259
SWODY1
SPC AC 061258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon
through tonight from parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing over the western CONUS this morning will evolve into
more of a split flow pattern through the period, as a lead mid-level
shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central
Plains/Upper Midwest, and a closed low develops over the southern CA
vicinity. A surface lee cyclone has moved into northwest KS early
this morning, and is forecast to develop towards IA by this evening,
while a secondary low shifts eastward along the KS/OK border. A cold
front attendant to the primary surface low will surge
east-southeastward across the southern/central Plains and adjacent
portions of the Midwest through the period, and will likely provide
a focus for organized severe convection later today. A warm front
will develop northward through tonight across parts of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This boundary should serve as a northern limit
to the severe threat from surface-based convection. A dryline will
also extend southward from the secondary surface low across
western/central OK into TX by late afternoon.

...Central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes...
Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the lead mid-level
shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this morning across eastern KS/NE into northern MO and
IA/IL. This activity will tend to remain elevated, but could pose an
isolated hail threat. In the wake of this convection, low-level
moisture is expected to continue streaming northward today ahead of
the cold front, with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints common
by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level
lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability should exist
farther south into KS where greater low-level moisture will be in place.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast NE/northern
KS and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting
shortwave trough. Additional convection may also form farther south
into central/eastern KS. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a
50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts,
including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a
risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth
into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems
probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into
IA/MO through the evening. Some risk for at least isolated
severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday
morning across WI/IL and perhaps even Lower MI if one of these
clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to
become more limited with eastward extent across these areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. A strong tornado appears possible with any supercells
this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The Enhanced Risk has been
expanded a little north/westward in northeast KS, southeast NE, and
southwest IA to account for the very large hail potential with
initial supercell development. Some consideration was also given to
greater severe wind probabilities in IA, but confidence in a more
concentrated corridor of damaging winds is low given the weaker
instability forecast with eastward extent across the Midwest.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in OK/TX
remains highly uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level
convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated
with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to
the north of these areas. Still, recent HRRR/RAP/NAM guidance
suggests that MLCIN will be minimal by peak afternoon heating, with
moderate instability in place along/east of the dryline. If any
cells can form and be sustained, they would likely become severe and
pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Regardless, the chance for convective initiation still
appears highly uncertain/conditional this afternoon. A better chance
for robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this
evening/tonight as the cold front advances southward. Both large
hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity
through the end of the period.

Most guidance also continues to show a somewhat separate area of
thunderstorms developing farther east across eastern OK/western AR
and vicinity this afternoon into early evening. This activity might
be aided by a very weak mid-level perturbation moving northeastward
today across central/northeast TX. If this convection develops, then
it would pose a threat for all hazards, including large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). No
changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk across the southern
Plains/Ozarks with this update.

..Gleason/Dean.. 03/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 061946
SWODY1
SPC AC 061945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon
through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.

...20z Update...
No categorical changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook.

A corridor of more favorable tornado potential is possible this
evening near the interface of the surface low and warm front across
far southeastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. Here,
within the warm sector cells may develop ahead of the cold front
within an region of enhanced low-level shear (given the placement of
the warm front and forecast increase in south-southwesterly
low-level jet). There are some complicating factors, such as ongoing
cloud cover and convection in the warm air advection regime this
morning. Some sheltered heating is ongoing with breaks in the cloud
cover, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg nosing in from the west. The 18z
soundings from Lamont, OK and Topeka, KS show this trend in
instability as well as enlarged/curved hodographs and strong 50 kt
flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict further enlargement of
low-level hodographs this evening, amid steep lapse rates and dew
points in the low to mid 60s, and STP values around 2. Given the
favorable parameter space, tornado probabilities were increased with
this outlook.

Otherwise, the Enhanced remains unchanged. See previous discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/

...Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of
the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with
upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon.
Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will
support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into
Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although
such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover
across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast
Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the
surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support
organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This
activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly
quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind
damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as
convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at
least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into
early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan
if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is
forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these
areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong
tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level
shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level
jet.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning
across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating
the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved
short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation
along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a
bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will
be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the
region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day
storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible
into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more
likely to its east potentially related to differential
heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture.

Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe
and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm
development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold
front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging
winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the
period.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 101235
SWODY1
SPC AC 101233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast today from the southern Plains
into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are
possible, including the risk for a few strong to intense tornadoes
and very large hail.

...Synopsis...
A split-flow upper pattern persists across the CONUS this morning. Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over
the central Baja Peninsula within the southern stream and a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest
within the northern stream. Surface analysis shows a large reservoir
of low-level moisture from the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. General expectation is
for both the southern-stream upper low and northern-stream shortwave
to progress eastward today, as some modest phasing occurs between
these two features.

This evolution will contribute to strengthening mid-level flow
across much of the Plains and MS Valley, while also resulting in
increased ascent across the broad warm sector. This will result in a
large area of strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern
Plains into the southern Great Lakes, beginning during the early
afternoon and persisting through the evening and overnight. Two
areas within this broader region, west TX into southwest OK and the
Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes, have environmental
conditions that support the potential for significant severe
weather, including very large hail greater than 2" in diameter and
strong to intense tornadoes.

...Mid MS Valley into the Southern Great Lakes...

Northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move out of MT/WY
this evening, accompanied by strong mid-level flow (over 100 kt at
500 mb). However, this will be well west of the moist and buoyant
airmass across the Mid MS Valley. Even so, modest height falls are
anticipated over the region beginning during the late afternoon. Of
more consequence for the severe-weather potential, a surface low
(currently over the central NE/KS border vicinity) will eject
northeastward ahead of the shortwave, moving along the stationary
boundary that currently extends into far southern WI. This boundary
is also expected to sharpen throughout the day as low-level moisture
advection persists to its south and cold, northeasterly surface
winds persist to its north. Low-level convergence near the surface
low and stationary front will be augmented by the previously
mentioned subtle height falls to support thunderstorm development.
These mesoscale details as well as which side of the stationary
boundary storms develop will be key for determining the primary
severe hazard.

The airmass south of the stationary front is expected to be
moderately to strongly unstable, as temperatures in the 80s,
dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates
combine to support 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and associated moderate elevated buoyancy will persist north of the
front as well. Given the subtle forcing and mesoscale character of
this set up, CAM guidance varies notably on the timing and location
of thunderstorm development.

Kinematic profiles suggest that any surface-based warm sector
development should quickly become supercellular, with all severe
hazards possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. A strong
to intense tornado is possible, particularly with any storms ongoing
around 00Z when the low-level flow increases notably, resulting in
considerable elongation of the low-level hodograph. Latest guidance
suggests this tornado risk will exist into parts of far southwest
Lower MI, so probabilities were expanded accordingly. Very large
hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) will also be possible north of the front
where strong deep-layer vertical shear exists.

...Southern Plains...

The southern-stream upper low is forecast to eject eastward across
northern Mexico today, with ascent preceding this low overspreading
a West TX dryline by the afternoon. Initial storm development is
anticipated over the Permian Basin/Big Bend vicinity, with moderate
buoyancy and very strong vertical shear supporting a quick evolution
into supercells capable of very large hail greater than 3" in
diameter. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected from
southwest TX into southwest OK as the upper low continues eastward.
Very large hail will remain the primary severe risk although a trend
towards a more linear mode is expected throughout the evening.
Strong gusts could accompany the resulting squall line. The tornado
risk is expected to remain low, owing primarily to the modest
low-level flow. This low-level flow is expected to increase across
the TX Hill Country tonight, where a relatively greater tornado risk
could materialize if cells remain discrete.

...Northern OK/KS into the Lower OH Valley...

Most guidance has trended towards greater thunderstorm coverage
tonight near the front across northern OK and KS. Moderate buoyancy
and shear will be in place, supporting strong to severe
thunderstorms. Large to isolated very large hail is possible with
the initial development before a trend towards a linear mode shifts
the primary hazard to damaging gusts. The resulting convective line
is then expected to continue eastward across AR and MO before
reaching the Lower OH Valley early tomorrow morning. Damaging gusts
will remain possible as the line moves east overnight. A
low-probability tornado threat could also exist within this line as
it moves into the greater low-level moisture and stronger low-level
flow farther east across central/southern MO and far southern IL.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/10/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 151959
SWODY1
SPC AC 151957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
Valley/Southeast.

...20Z Update...
Some trimming to severe/thunder probabilities was done across
Missouri given the progression of the sharp cold front. Lapse rate
and shear profiles will favor supercells from near the Sabine Valley
into the Mississippi Delta region. There, hail to around 2 inches is conditionally possible. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes
still appears to be within the mid-Mississippi Valley. Tornado
probabilities were adjusted based on the latest guidance. Lastly,
higher wind probabilities (45%) were expanded southeastward where
there is an increased signal in guidance for a coherent line of
convection to maintain intensity this evening/overnight. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 03/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest...

Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.

Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.

General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
several QLCS tornadoes.

The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.

...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas...

Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight
from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of
the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS
Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is
some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this
afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe
threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms
spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday
morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these
cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal
Risk across this region with no changes.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 260536
SWODY1
SPC AC 260534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough
topping the dominant southwestern anticyclone over southern WY.
Latest lightning data supports this with isolated thunderstorms
currently noted from southern WY into the NE Panhandle. 00z model
guidance suggests this feature will advance into the Mid-MO Valley
by 18z, then progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 27/00z. As this
short wave advances east, surface ridging will build south across
the Plains and force a pronounced cold front across much of IA by
early afternoon with the sharp boundary settling south across
northern IL as a weak surface wave tracks toward southern Lower MI.

Deep westerly flow should allow surface temperatures to warm quickly
into the lower-mid 80s south of the front over IL/western IN. Even
so, convective temperatures may struggle to be breached until late
afternoon. Current thinking is upper 50s to near 60 F dew points
should return to this region prior to frontal passage, thus modest
MLCAPE is expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest weak
capping may hold across the warm sector so it's not entirely clear
how much activity will develop well ahead of the front. However,
strong frontal forcing will easily encourage thunderstorm
development and convection will evolve within a strongly sheared
environment. Profiles favor organized rotating updrafts and
supercells are expected, especially early in the convective cycle.
Given the strength of the front there is an expectation for storm
mergers and line segments to evolve. Very large hail is possible,
especially with early supercell development. As a frontal MCS
evolves, damaging winds are expected to be more common with the LLJ strengthening into the evening hours across the OH Valley. Some
tornado threat also exists with storms that are not undercut by the
surging cold front, both with supercells and within the extensive
frontal squall line. This activity will spread toward the Ohio River
where gradual weakening is expected during the late-night hours.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/26/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 130536
SWODY1
SPC AC 130534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
late this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough with
multiple embedded vorticity maxima over the Great Basin. While the
primary upper wave will remain over the West for today, a leading
impulse is forecast to eject towards the northern Plains and into
the Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone
over the central High Plains will migrate northeastward in tandem
with the upper impulse, likely reaching the southern MN vicinity by
early evening. As this occurs, a plume of mid-60s dewpoints will
spread north into the upper MS Valley along and south of a warm
front. Scattered thunderstorm development along and north of the
warm front is anticipated by late afternoon as forcing for ascent
gradually increases. Elsewhere, more isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of TX and OK where deep
mixing along a dryline may result in sustained deep convection.

...Upper MS Valley...

A combination of shortwave ridging and capping at the base of an EML
will limit thunderstorm development through much of the day across
southern MN into central WI. This will allow for continued moisture
return as a warm front lifts into the region with MLCAPE values
forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21 UTC. Thunderstorm
development will become increasingly probable through the 21-00 UTC
period as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching
upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 knot
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells
along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph elongation
appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3
inches with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level
SRH along the frontal zone may result in a corridor of relatively
higher tornado potential if convection can remain rooted along the boundary.

While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection, east/northeasterly storm motions along or just north of
the warm front will likely promote storm advection towards the cool
side of the boundary and clustering/upscale growth through the
evening. This, combined with capping over the remainder of the warm
sector, limits confidence in a more widespread tornado threat, and
could modulate the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail within a
few hours after convective initiation. Nonetheless, a corridor of
higher hail potential remains evident in latest guidance along and
just north of the warm front where discrete supercells are most
probable. 30% hail probabilities have been shifted to reflect a
southward trend in frontal placement noted in most recent guidance.

...Southern Plains...

A moist and very unstable air mass will remain in place across TX
and OK today with MLCAPE values expected to increase to around 2500
J/kg by late afternoon. Ample diurnal heating/mixing on the western
periphery of the moisture plume will likely result in weak,
high-based convection by mid to late afternoon. Easterly storm
motions may promote downstream intensification as convection
migrates towards richer low-level moisture, but this will be
conditional on convection remaining sustained long enough to realize
the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this can occur,
deep-layer shear values on the order of 40 knots should promote
organized convection - likely in the form of supercells - with an
attendant threat for all hazards, including very large hail. While
both global and CAM ensemble guidance hint at this potential, the
lack of appreciable lifting mechanisms (aside from the dryline circulation/boundary-layer mixing) casts considerable uncertainty on
overall storm coverage.

..Moore/Wendt.. 04/13/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 171240
SWODY1
SPC AC 171239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be
accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong
tornadoes, before severe wind gusts 60 to 90 mph become the
most prominent hazard by this evening.

...Synopsis...
Surface analysis this morning depicts a front bisecting MN north to
south to a low near the NE-IA-SD border, with the front extending
southwestward into the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery
shows a prominent upper trough near the MT-ND border
south-southwestward into eastern UT. A belt of increasingly strong southwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a destabilizing warm
sector today as the upper trough eventually reaches the Upper
Midwest and central Great Plains late tonight. Concurrently, the aforementioned cyclone will develop northeast to Lake Superior as a
warm front over IA advances northward into the western Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, the cold front will sweep southeast reaching the central
Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Great Plains by early Saturday.

...Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley...

A northward expanding warm/moist sector on the nose of a 50+ kt
southerly LLJ will continue to destabilize as large-scale ascent
approaches from the west. A large-hail threat may develop this
morning with developing convection across southern MN (see
forthcoming MCD #472 for short-term details). Heating and advection
of 60s deg F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates
will support the development of a moderately to very unstable
airmass from IA-IL northward into the upper MS Valley to the east of
the front and southeast of the low. Upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecast immediately ahead of the front with strengthening
flow aloft, strongly favoring organized storms, including
supercells. Recent model guidance continues to show the development
of discrete supercells later this afternoon ahead of the front over
parts of central/northern WI near the low, and farther south in the
vicinity of eastern IA into adjacent portions of WI/northwest IL.
All hazards will be possible with this potential activity, including
the possibility for an intense tornado. Large to giant hail will be
possible with supercells. Other storms likely to evolve quickly
into a band of severe thunderstorms will develop farther west and
push east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend
to become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.

...KS-OK eastward into the lower MO Valley...

Continued moistening and heating of an airmass to the east of a
dryline/cold front and associated triple point will lead to a very
unstable airmass from OK into KS by early to mid afternoon. A
capping inversion will likely inhibit storm development until mid
afternoon near the front. Initial storm development will likely be supercellular near the triple point before a more extensive band of
cellular storms develops along the boundary. Both a supercell and
QLCS tornado risk is apparent given the appreciably large
CAPE/shear. A coalescing of cold pools and intensification of a
squall line with embedded surges and bowing segments may result in
focused swaths of more intense severe gusts (i.e., locally 75-90
mph) from south-central and eastern KS into west-central MO.
Farther south, a more conditional setup south of the triple point
along the dryline is expected. Large to giant hail could accompany
any mature/sustained supercell along with a tornado risk.
Eventually the front will sweep southeastward with a convective line
yielding a risk for wind/hail.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/17/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 231251
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid
Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail
and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight...

The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over
southern BC/AB and a northeastward moving trough over the western
Dakotas will lead to the formation of a deep closed low over
southern SK. An associated, occluding surface cyclone will weaken
across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves
across MN/IA/KS/MO and northern OK. Low-level moisture will spread
northward across IA/MN in advance of the cold front, beneath the
northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer. Surface heating and the
degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds from IA into
MN, and forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs
structures (stronger low-level shear lingering across IA). Mixed
convective modes are expected along and ahead of the front this
afternoon, which could produce occasional wind damage, large hail
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon
through late evening from eastern KS into far northern OK, near and
just northeast of a cold front/dryline triple point and weak
secondary cyclone. A midlevel speed max near the Four Corners will
progress eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent
in the left exit region of the jet coincident with the triple point
near or just north of the KS/OK border. An influx of mid 60s
boundary-layer dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will
contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with weakening convective
inhibition across KS by mid afternoon.

Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid
afternoon, with storms expected to develop southward to near the
triple point. The large buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates and
deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will favor very large
hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete storms.
The tornado threat will peak this evening as low-level
shear/hodograph curvature increase near the KS/OK border - there
will be strong tornado potential with the anchor/southern supercells
near the triple point. Upscale storm growth and cold pool
development will favor a more linear convective mode with occasional
wind damage as the outflow/effective cold front spreads
southeastward into northeast OK and southwest MO overnight.

...OK dryline this evening...

Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of
surface heating/mixing along the dryline and residence time in the
dryline circulation will be close to supporting deep convection. If
storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very large
hail initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat
with any sustained storm.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 04/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 241232
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...

A band of mainly sub-severe thunderstorms ongoing this morning from
eastern OK into AR and southern MO is being aided by southwesterly
warm/moist advection at low levels. With time, this forcing should
weaken, and a decrease in convective intensity should continue
through late morning. Outflow from this convection is forecast to
extend from south-central/southeast OK into AR this afternoon, and
should serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorms later
today. Daytime heating of a moist airmass already present across
much of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley
will aid in the development of moderate to strong instability by mid
afternoon along/south of the residual outflow and east of a surface
dryline extending from northeast to south-central TX. The greatest
instability should exist across southeast OK/northeast TX, where
steep mid-level lapse rates will likely still exist. A weak surface
low should also be in place across northeast TX by mid to late afternoon.

Large-scale forcing aloft will remain fairly nebulous/weak across
the southern Plains this afternoon, as a prominent/closed
upper-level low remains centered over south-central Canada. Still,
multiple robust thunderstorms should develop by 19-22Z across
southeast OK along/near the residual outflow boundary as MLCIN
becomes minimal with robust diurnal heating, and as westerly
mid/upper-level flow modestly strengthens across the ArkLaTex
through early evening. This convection will become organized and
likely supercellular given the presence of around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail (potentially up to
1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main threat with these
cells initially. Lower confidence in convective initiation exists
with southwestward extent along the dryline in TX, but at least a conditional/low threat for severe hail remains apparent.

With time, some clustering may occur with an increased damaging wind
threat as convection spreads east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex
through the evening. One or more clusters may also redevelop along
the outflow from ongoing convection across the lower MS Valley this
afternoon, with a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds.
Low-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong (15-25 kt at 850
mb), but ample instability and the presence of locally backed
near-surface winds near the outflow boundary may support enough 0-1
km SRH for a few tornadoes, especially across southeast OK into the
ArkLaTex with any persistent supercells. An Enhanced Risk has been
introduced across this region given increased confidence in multiple
supercells with significant severe hail potential developing through
the afternoon/evening.

...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today. Convection ahead of a cold
front has generally weakened this morning across the mid MS Valley.
Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue advancing
northward through the day ahead of the front, supporting weak
instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely organized
clusters/cells that develop this afternoon may pose an isolated
threat for damaging winds as they move northeastward this
afternoon/evening.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/24/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 281202
SWODY1
SPC AC 281200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and
central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject
eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS
Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread
northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a
low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the
lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a
weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain
over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big
Bend region.

A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the
ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning
warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX.
This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and
low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these
supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very
large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread
east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual
clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into
the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses
greater instability across AR and the Ozarks.

Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the
triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this
afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for
multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches)
may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very
favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even
though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern
Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In
its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS
Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift
northward some through the day, with the greater instability
forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse
rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through
the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to
numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely.
Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection
across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat
still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 061243
SWODY1
SPC AC 061242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave
troughs, one in the northern stream moving southward into UT/CO and
the other in southern stream off the southern CA/northern Baja
coast. Strong, confluent flow aloft exists downstream of these
shortwaves, with an extensive fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow extending from northern Mexico into the
Northeast. A general deepening of the upper troughing is anticipated
throughout the day as the northern-stream shortwave continues
southeastward while the southern-stream shortwave moves gradually
eastward. This evolution will result in strengthening mid to upper
level flow from the southern Plain into New England, particularly
from the Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley where 500 mb flow
could exceed 100 kt. This evolution will also push a cold front,
which currently extends from the TX Hill Country into western PA,
farther south.

There will be some displacement between the strongest flow aloft and
the more warm and moist conditions south of the front. However,
even with this displacement, moderate to strong upper/mid flow is
still expected across much of the southern Plains and Southeast.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along and ahead of
this cold front from the TX Hill Country through the Southeast and
into the Carolinas. Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
from central MS into central AL, where supercells capable of all
hazards will be possible.

...East TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...

Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from near JCT in the
TX Hill Country northeastward through the Arklatex, northern MS, and
western TN. A weak low exists along this boundary over the western
AR/LA vicinity. 70s dewpoints extend from south TX across LA into
far western MS and southern AR, with upper 60s dewpoints through
much of MS. Low-level moisture advection is expected to continue
throughout the day, with mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA
into central MS by the afternoon. This increasing moisture amid
filtered daytime heating will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the
front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE), despite poor mid-level lapse
rates. Also, as mentioned in the synopsis, strong deep-layer shear
will be in place, resulting in an overall airmass that supports supercells.

However, whether discrete supercells can develop and mature remains
uncertain. A combination of neutral height tendencies, widespread
cloud cover, and warm-air advection initiated storms will likely
lead to complex convective evolution and related storm interactions.
Majority of the convection-allowing guidance develops
thunderstorms within the warm sector from northern LA into central
MS by 18Z. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front from
northern AL into northern LA around this time as well. Large to very
large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, although
there is also a risk for tornadoes if a storm can remain discrete.
The tornado risk is expected to increase from the late afternoon
through the evening from central MS into central AL as low-level
hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow.
Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado
during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this
increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode.
Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with
an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards. Several rounds of elevated storms are possible
as well, with hail as the primary risk with these storms.

...TX Hill Country into southeast TX...

A pair of supercells capable of large hail are currently ongoing
across southwest TX (Crockett and Sutton Counties). Environmental
conditions are favorable for storm maintenance for at least an hour
or two before northward displacement from the better buoyancy leads
to weakening. Additional isolated development is possible farther
east into central and southeast TX during the afternoon and evening.
Any storms that mature would likely be supercellular and capable of
producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 102000
SWODY1
SPC AC 101958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor
adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The
convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to
surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance.
Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately
north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000
J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH
categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a
southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on
the expected 20 UTC frontal position.

Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the
Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight.
This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the
eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent
ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind
and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address
this potential.

Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have
transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun
weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new
convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the
south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s
along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be
minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms
through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional
short-term details.

..Moore.. 05/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...

Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 151250
SWODY1
SPC AC 151248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and
large to very large hail are likely late this afternoon and evening
across much of Iowa and vicinity. Isolated to scattered severe hail
and damaging winds are possible over a broader area from parts of
the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Generally zonal/westerly mid-level flow will persist over the
northern tier of the U.S. today, with an upper trough/low moving
slowly eastward over central Canada. At the surface, the primary low
will remain in northern Ontario, with a trailing cold front
extending southward into the Upper Midwest and northern/central
Plains. A secondary surface low will likely exist over southwest
KS/northwest OK by peak afternoon heating. A dryline will extend
southward from this low across much of the southern High Plains.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development along
the cold front/surface trough from eastern NE into IA to be delayed
until late afternoon or early evening (around 22-00Z), as
large-scale ascent will remain weak until a low-amplitude shortwave
trough embedded within the westerly mid-level flow eventually
overspreads the surface warm sector. Continued low-level warm/moist
advection through the day and diurnal heating will contribute to the development of moderate to locally strong instability across this
region by early evening. While low-level winds are forecast to
remain fairly modest, enhanced mid/upper-level flow will support
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

Initial supercells should pose a threat for large to isolated very
large hail (2+ inches in diameter), before likely quick upscale
growth this evening across IA supports a risk for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a
localized basis given the expectation for an organized cluster and
ample instability. A tornado or two could also occur this evening as
low-level shear gradually increases with a strengthening low-level
jet. Some adjustments have been made to the Slight and Enhanced Risk
areas based on latest observational trends and short-term guidance.
Namely, the Slight Risk has been extended northward into parts of
southeast MN/southwest WI, where some risk for hail-producing
supercells should exist along/ahead of the front. The Enhanced Risk
has also been expanded to include more of western IA, as multiple
supercells may form and eventually congeal into one or more bowing
clusters through the evening.

...Southern High Plains...

Robust daytime heating will yield a very well-mixed/deep boundary
layer near/south of the secondary surface low over southwest KS and
vicinity. Mid-level temperatures will remain cool enough to support
at least weak instability, even with modest low-level
moisture/surface dewpoints. A weak mid-level shortwave trough moving
from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains will enhance large-scale ascent late in the day. This should support the
development of high-based thunderstorms, with occasional strong to
severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur
given the very deeply mixed boundary layer extending up to around
500 mb. Cells that develop in west/southwest TX may contain marginal
hail, with elongated hodographs in mid/upper levels.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 161249
SWODY1
SPC AC 161248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should
occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper troughing will gradually amplify over the western
CONUS today, while modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level
flow persists over the southern/central Plains. A separate
mid/upper-level trough with strong westerly mid-level jet will move
eastward across the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec through the day,
while remaining generally displaced to the north of the surface warm
sector. At the surface, a weak low over the southern High Plains
this morning should reform over the central High Plains of eastern
CO by late afternoon, as large-scale ascent preceding the western
CONUS upper trough gradually overspreads this region. Greater
low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a
convectively reinforced front from NE/IA into the southern Great
Lakes region. A dryline will extend southward from this boundary
across the southern/central High Plains.

...Central High Plains to Iowa...

High-based thunderstorms that initially develop across the higher
terrain of central CO this afternoon will eventually encounter a
more unstable airmass in eastern CO/western KS, as low-level
moisture gradually increases in the bent back region to the
north/northwest of the surface low. An increase in convective
coverage and intensity is anticipated as this activity spreads
eastward across the central High Plains late this afternoon and
evening, aided by at least moderate instability and deep-layer
shear. While some supercell potential will exist, along with a
threat for large to isolated very large hail, most guidance
continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster will develop and
spread eastward along/near the surface boundary across southern
NE/northern KS through the evening. A greater threat for severe
winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph), remains
apparent, as steep low/mid-level lapse rates aid in efficient
downward momentum transfer within the convective cluster. A modest
expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for the
potential of a slightly larger cluster.

A separate area of robust convective development should also occur
farther east this afternoon/evening across parts of IA and vicinity
along/near the surface front. This activity will likely be aided by strengthening low-level warm advection this evening, and it may
persist through much of the night. The presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and daytime heating all
suggest that moderate to locally strong instability will likely be
in place by late afternoon along/south of the front. While westerly
mid-level flow should only be modestly enhanced, sufficient
deep-layer shear is forecast to support supercells initially. Large
to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) appears possible within the
first couple hours of initiation, before thunderstorm
mergers/interactions occur and the overall mode becomes messy. Some
increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may develop if a more
organized cluster can emerge and spread east-southeastward through
the evening and early overnight hours. A few tornadoes also appear
possible through the evening with any sustained supercells. This
potential should remain focused along/near the front where backed
low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH.

...Southern High Plains...

Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface
dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and
western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal
MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection
capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from
central MO into the Midwest/OH Valley. This convection is likely
being aided by warm/moist advection associated with a
west-southwesterly low-level jet. While instability remains fairly
limited at the moment, some potential for occasional gusty winds and
marginally severe hail should continue through the late morning with
this activity. Greater destabilization is forecast along/south of
this ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this afternoon.
One or more convectively enhanced MCVs may aid robust thunderstorm
development across parts of western/central KY, with a threat for
scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A brief tornado
or two also appears possible. A Slight Risk has been introduced
across this area where a more focused risk for damaging winds has
become apparent in short-term guidance.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 171252
SWODY1
SPC AC 171250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible
initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads
to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS should further
amplify today as an embedded mid-level jet and associated shortwave
trough move from the West Coast to the Four Corners region through
the period. A broad zone of around 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level
flow will persist today from the southern/central High Plains to the
Upper Midwest, with multiple small-scale perturbations forecast to
advance northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a low
over western KS this morning is expected to gradually develop
northeastward towards the KS/NE border vicinity this evening. A
dryline trailing from this low will mix eastward through late
afternoon peak heating across the southern/central High Plains. A
warm front will attempt to lift northward today across NE/IA into
southeast SD and parts of southern MN, while a cold front is
forecast to gradually advance southeastward across the
northern/central Plains through the period.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Initial thunderstorm development appears likely across eastern CO
this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity
will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to
very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. By 20-22Z,
additional robust convection is expected to develop along/near the
cold front across north-central NE/south-central SD in a rapidly
destabilizing airmass. There is still some uncertainty with how far
north the warm front and related rich low-level moisture will reach
across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, especially given ongoing
convection and related outflow this morning across NE/IA.

Still, an increasing large hail threat remains evident with any
convection that develops along/near the cold front this afternoon,
as ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts, including supercells initially. A strong tornado threat
will exist with any of these supercells that can become/remain
surface based, as low-level shear strengthens through the late
afternoon/early evening. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds
should develop as convection quickly grows upscale into bowing
clusters this evening. The northeastward extent of this severe wind
threat remains a bit uncertain, especially into southern/central MN
where the warm front is forecast to reach. A risk for embedded QLCS
tornadoes may continue with the surface-based portion of the cluster.

Thunderstorm initiation farther south along the length of the
dryline appears somewhat conditional given modest large-scale
ascent. But, most guidance continues to show at least isolated
high-based convection developing by late afternoon across parts of north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK.
Any thunderstorms which can be sustained will pose a threat for
large to very large hail and tornadoes, especially across KS where a
40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will enhance 0-1 km shear. A strong
tornado appears possible this evening with any supercell that can
persist, although there should be a tendency for upscale growth into
a severe wind producing cluster with time as the cold front
overtakes the dryline.

...Great Lakes/Lower Michigan...

Recent radar and visible satellite imagery show an MCV associated
with earlier convection across the central Plains is present over IA
this morning. This feature is forecast to track east-northeastward
today, and should approach eastern WI and Lower MI by late
afternoon/early evening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level
wind field should exist in close proximity to this MCV, and the
surface warm front is expected to gradually develop northward across
these regions through the day. Some intensification of convection is
possible this afternoon/evening along and near the warm front, with
sufficient instability and shear to support a mix of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado. A Slight Risk has been added for parts of Lower
MI given increased confidence in this scenario occurring.

...Southeast...

On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western
Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus
from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL
Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a
favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse
rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable
of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally
severe hail.

...Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...

A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent
of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent
over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated
thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across
parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in a
persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then
isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the
strong MUCAPE forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a
weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this
morning over OH may support isolated convective development this
afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall
environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger
cores that may develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)