ACUS03 KWNS 040846
SWODY3
SPC AC 040845

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and
central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A
severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, and in the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into the overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower and Mid Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level trough will move northeastward across the
central High Plains on Friday, as an associated mid-level jet
translates northeastward across the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains
and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the moist sector by midday. Increasing low-level convergence along
the front, and across parts of the moist sector will result in
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east-northeastward
toward the instability axis, where strong low-level flow be
maximized. This will result in a substantial severe threat from late
afternoon into the evening from the southern and central Plains north-northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

A well-defined 65 to 85 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move
across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon.
This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear over
much of the moist sector, which will be favorable for severe storms.
Recent runs from the ECMWF have the position of the mid-level jet
further south during the late afternoon, which will be more
favorably timed for a severe weather event in the southern and
central Plains. Several NAM forecast soundings across southern and
central Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Kansas by early
evening have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. Low-level shear will be
strong due to a focused 850 mb jet forecast to develop over eastern
Oklahoma. This will support a threat for supercells with strong
tornadoes. In addition to the instability and shear, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will also be in place supporting a large hail
and wind-damage threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter
will be possible with the more intense supercells. The potential for
supercells with tornadoes and large to very large hail will extend
as far north as the Kansas City Metro, where a secondary low-level
jet is forecast to develop early Friday evening. The severe threat
should persist from the evening into the overnight period, as
multiple supercell clusters gradually congeal into a severe line segment.

...Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Moisture advection will continue throughout the day on Friday into
the evening across the mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. During the
mid to late evening, thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward
into the region. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be
favorable for a severe threat. Some model forecasts suggest that an
intense convective line will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid
to upper Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Under
this scenario, supercells embedded in the line would be capable of
large hail. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will
also be possible with the faster moving sections of the line,
especially with bowing segments.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 130727
SWODY3
SPC AC 130726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few
tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from
northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat
appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the
evening and overnight hours.

...Discussion...
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains
during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by
00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will
rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing
across AR, MO, IL and IN.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO
and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward
across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality
will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into
southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday morning.

Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late
afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as
1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial
variability exists among models regarding instability and capping,
though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors.
Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.

Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of
widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing
during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of
southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear
environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while
forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more
than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing
corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes.
Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a
very strong frontal surge out of the west.

The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks
as the event nears and predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 150729
SWODY3
SPC AC 150728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible.

...Southern Plains to MS Valley...

A robust upper trough will eject eastward from the northern High
Plains and central Rockies to the Upper Midwest and central Plains
on Friday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper
MS Valley and Great Lakes. Flow at 850-700 mb around 40-60 kt will
be common. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northern MN
to a low over eastern NE Friday morning. Meanwhile, a dryline will
extend southwest from the NE low into central KS, northwest OK and
western TX. A warm front initially arcing across central IA into
south-central IL will lift northward through the period ahead of the eastward-advancing surface low tracking across northern IA/southern
MN into WI. A warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints
will be in place across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by
midday, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints extending north
into portions of eastern MN and WI. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8
C/km) will overspread this moist boundary layer, resulting in
moderate to strong destabilization.

As strong ascent overspreads the aforementioned surface boundaries
by mid afternoon, widespread thunderstorm development is expected.
While initial supercells are possible given a favorable
thermodynamic environment and supercell vertical wind profiles,
linear forcing along the front combined with strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow parallel to the initiating boundary may result in
rapid upscale development into a QLCS, particularly from northeast
KS/northwest MO into IA. A well-organized line of convection will
pose a damaging wind risk along with possible QLCS tornadoes as
convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening. If any
discrete supercells develop, an all-hazards risk will also accompany
that activity.

Further south across southern KS into OK, supercell development may
be more probable, at least initially. Convection will initially
develop along the dryline prior to the cold front overtaking this
boundary later in the evening. Any supercells that develop and can
maintain discrete characteristics will pose a risk for very large
hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds. With time, the cold
front will overtake the dryline during the evening and move
southeast overnight. Linear convection is expected along the front,
posing a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk during the
nighttime hours.

Capping, weakening large-scale ascent and more modest vertical shear
with southern extent may limit storm potential along the dryline in western/west-central TX.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$
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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 230728
SWODY3
SPC AC 230727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma
and Kansas during the evening. These storms will pose a risk of very
large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Isolated
severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of North Texas
during the afternoon.

... Synopsis ...

Increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread the Southern
and Central Plains on Saturday as the midlevel pattern responds to a
strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into the Southwest.
This will induce strong southerly winds across the Plains, helping
to quickly draw an old frontal boundary northward. This boundary
should be oriented from northwest to southeast across portions of
Oklahoma by late Saturday.

... Portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Arkansas ...

Most of the day should be devoid of thunderstorms as mid-level
heights rise downstream of a digging trough across the Southwest. At
the same time, strong southerly winds will transport Gulf moisture
northward from the far Southern Plains into the Central Plains.
Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in the development of
strong instability across much of the area, as maximum SBCAPE values
approach 4000 J/kg across portions of north Texas into central Oklahoma.

During the late evening a subtle perturbation within the southwest
flow is forecast to approach Oklahoma. In response to this, the
low-level jet is forecast to increase to between 30 and 40 knots. As
it crosses the northward moving warm front, this warm-air
advection/isentropic ascent will combine with modest large-scale
ascent from the approaching midlevel perturbation to support
scattered thunderstorm develop on the north side of the moisture
gradient. Although differences exist between the various models, the
generic depiction of forecast soundings show long hodographs with
varying degrees of low-level curvature in the presence of 2000-3000
J/kg of MUCAPE. Thus, any storm that develops within the environment
will be capable of producing all hazards initially. With time,
thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more southeast moving
bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds with perhaps a
QLCS tornado threat.

... North Texas into Southern Oklahoma ...

Diurnal heating of a moist airmass to the east of a dryline will
result in an extremely unstable airmass developing by the afternoon.
Although the region will be devoid of large-scale forcing for
ascent, temperatures in the 90Fs to the west of the dryline may be
sufficient to induce dryline circulations capable of initiating
isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm that develops will be
capable of producing very large hail.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

$$
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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
A remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation/shear axis may
tend to shift north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba
through this period, while larger-scale troughing along an axis
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity
weakens through this period. However, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable
strength, while a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of
the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within strong
southwesterly flow between the two features.

Models suggest that stronger mid-level height falls will generally
overspread the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska
vicinity of the high plains late Sunday afternoon into evening,
before reaching southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley by
12Z Monday, accompanied by a developing low within the northern
portion of deepening surface troughing extending southward into the
southern Great Plains. Another low, developing by Sunday afternoon
across the southeastern Colorado/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region
may reach portions of central Kansas.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models
suggest that a warm frontal zone may become better defined by early
Sunday evening across southern Kansas into the Ozark Plateau
vicinity, before tending to shift northward.

...Great Plains...

Although though there is not a strong signal yet evident within
latest model output concerning potential convective evolution during
this period, at least isolated to perhaps widely scattered supercell development may initiate along the dryline as far south as northwest
Texas by late Sunday afternoon, in the presence of destabilization
and strengthening shear. By early Sunday evening, this probably
will include enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs
beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This may become
supportive of increasing potential for a couple of strong tornadoes,
in addition to large hail, with increasing storm coverage probable
across the western Kansas vicinity.

Gradually, large-scale forcing for ascent, focusing along the warm
front, may support one or two upscale growing clusters of storms
spreading into the middle/lower Missouri Valley overnight, with
damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent severe hazard along
with perhaps some continuing risk for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

$$
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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 150732
SWODY3
SPC AC 150731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and
southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of
all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging
damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain
West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across
the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly
flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting
northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the
period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of
Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all
hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota
continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front
through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for
severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western
Kansas into western Oklahoma.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of
Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe
hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across
much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep
layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly
across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern
Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of
all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual
upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A
strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may
support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be strong.

...Western Kansas into western Oklahoma...

A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline
into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some
signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the
dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally
favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado
or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 160737
SWODY3
SPC AC 160736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before
ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low
will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will
extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper
Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western
Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along
the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas.

...Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska...

A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the
dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to
strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary
mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4
inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low
level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise
enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to
remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in
combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher
probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.

As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be
favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.

...Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region...

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north
along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes
Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period within these regions, which may limit how much
destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless,
guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few
instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday
afternoon and evening.

...Western Oklahoma into northern Texas...

Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few
isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential
for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will
reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with
uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)