ACUS02 KWNS 151732
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND WASHINGTON D.C...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and
particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South
Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further
amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards
the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress
into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over
western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will
extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast
Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday.

...East...

No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some
expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT
across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime
suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to
develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along
with substantial early-day convection south, both render some
uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of
the ENH-MDT risk areas.

A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL
Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for
supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s
surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any
semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential
to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon
before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL coast.

Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more
uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the
low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust
boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal
plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be
quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the
Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged
low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal
warm-moist sector.

Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for
intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central
portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early
afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced
south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these
could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to
the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS.
This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near
the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential
in the Northeast near sunset.

..Grams.. 03/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 170602
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will
likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four
Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow
moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the
Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is
expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the
vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin
at the start of the D2/Monday period.

A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado
northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be
located across central Kansas extending southward into western
Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be
common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front
into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the
afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across
central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...

Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across
central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will
exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across
central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating
and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid
to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will
yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg
extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will
erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation
expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around
20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support
organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts.
Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+
inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this potential.

The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale
ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50
kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening
flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with
broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing
low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach
250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in
combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support
an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should
discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will
be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into
southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented
somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms
near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists
for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of
the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this
scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska.
Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into
southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS.

...Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI...

Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of
the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some
risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that
recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with
thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying
of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning
convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY.
Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the
north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper Midwest.

...OK/TX...

A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)