ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.

A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.

A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270521
SWODY2
SPC AC 270520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central
High Plains.

...Synopsis...

Considerable trough amplification is forecast over the eastern CONUS
this period, aided by the propagation of the mid/upper-level jet
streaks from the Great Lakes and OH Valley through VA and NC. A
series of vorticity maxima is forecast on the cyclonic side of the
jet streaks, which will enhance forcing for ascent over the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the primary low
pressure is expected to deepen over the Delmarva with a secondary
cyclone over western NY. A lee trough will extend from the Delmarva
low south-southwest along the Piedmont, ahead of a cold front moving
through the TN Valley and central and southern Appalachians.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians...

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially severe with damaging
winds) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the lower
Great Lakes into the central Appalachians. The longevity and areal
extent of the early-day storms will be a determinant in where more
robust air mass destabilization will take place during the
afternoon. The 00Z HREF calibrated thunder probabilities suggest the
most likely areas for persistent morning storms will be from NY and
PA into the Delmarva and WV. To the south of those locations,
stronger daytime heating appears more probable, which, combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, will yield
moderate to potentially strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1500-2500+ J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and lee
trough as background forcing for ascent strengthens in the left exit
region of the approaching upper-level jet streak. The presence of
the mid/upper-level wind maxima will yield long hodographs with
sufficient vertical shear for supercells and bowing structures. The strengthening shear combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will be supportive of large-hail production with any supercells that
form. Otherwise, damaging winds will be the primary hazard,
especially with any storm clusters or bowing line segments. Some
tornado threat could also materialize Tuesday afternoon into evening
near and south of the Delmarva surface low where slightly stronger
low-level shear is forecast.

...Central High Plains...

Strong heating of a moist, upslope-flow air mass is expected to
yield a moderately unstable environment by afternoon with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears possible by mid- to late afternoon along the
high terrain within a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt
westerly deep-layer shear. Transient supercell structures appear
possible, which suggest some marginally severe hail potential,
despite the warm mid-level temperatures. There is some model signal
for storm clustering over the adjacent High Plains by evening, at
which point the threat for isolated severe wind gusts would increase.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 280541
SWODY2
SPC AC 280539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds
appear possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Isolated severe storms capable of
severe wind gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High
Plains Wednesday afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the Mid-Atlantic with
associated troughing extending south along the Atlantic Coast. Some
mid-level flow enhancement is forecast across the Carolinas into GA
Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with a weak disturbance moving
through the base of the trough. Elsewhere, an upper high will remain
anchored over the southern Rockies with a series of perturbations
rotating through the western into northern periphery of that feature.

At the surface, a cool front will settle south into the southeast
Atlantic coastal areas and central and eastern Gulf states by
afternoon with the boundary extending northwest into the central
Plains. Farther west, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen over the
northern High Plains with an associated lee trough extending into
the central High Plains.

...Southeast...

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the
70s are expected to yield a strongly unstable, prefrontal air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. The glancing
influence of the mid-level wave passing to the immediate north will
combine with modest frontal convergence to foster scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon from central and southern AL into
southern GA and northern FL. While the strongest deep-layer shear is
expected to remain across the post-frontal air mass, a modest
increase in mid-level flow will overspread the frontal zone. That,
along with the strong buoyancy, high precipitable water content, and
steepening low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging wet microbursts, especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

...Northern High Plains...

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant moderate instability
(e.g., MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) are forecast by afternoon to the
east of the surface low and lee trough. Strong daytime heating and
the approach of a weak mid-level disturbance from the west are
expected to erode the cap, allowing for widely scattered storm
development from late afternoon into evening. Model soundings
indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, which suggests the potential for high-based,
transient supercell structures with an associated risk for localized
severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal for a potentially greater severe wind gust threat developing
over western into central ND Wednesday evening. Should that signal
persist, an upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be required.

...Southern New England...

A zone of enhanced low-level shear is forecast to develop to the
immediate east of the deep-layer cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday. Clouds and precipitation are expected to limit air mass destabilization within the zone of stronger shear, which should
preclude a severe weather threat. However, if later model runs
indicate stronger instability than is currently forecast, low severe
weather probabilities may be required.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 290543
SWODY2
SPC AC 290542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences
of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains,
the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Plains Thursday
morning will translate into the upper Midwest, while a trailing
disturbance moves through the mid MO Valley. Some enhancement of the
mid-level flow is forecast with the secondary system over the
central Plains. In the low levels, a surface low is expected to
track from SD into MN, along a cool front moving through the upper
MS Valley and the northern Plains into the central Plains. A
secondary low is forecast to deepen along the front over central KS.

...Northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and the
central Plains...

Latest model guidance continues to indicate showers and
thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Thursday across the northern Plains
into the mid MO Valley, within a zone of forcing for ascent
preceding the lead short-wave trough. A subset of that convection
may linger into afternoon with associated cloud cover limiting
daytime heating and resultant destabilization. Where stronger
heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low/mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the cool front and any
differential heating/outflow boundaries associated with previous
and/or active convection. A separate area of storms may also develop
later in the afternoon over eastern MT in the vicinity of a surface
low and lee trough. Damaging winds appear to be the primary hazard,
though isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.

A number of physics-based models and AI guidance indicate a corridor
from south-central SD into central or eastern NE as being a
preferred location for upscale growth of storms into a
cold-pool-driven MCS Thursday afternoon into evening, which would
enhance the damaging-wind potential. That scenario appears plausible
as the consensus of model guidance depicts that zone as having the
most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and modest
vertical shear. Given these considerations, a 15% wind probability
contour and related level 2/Slight Risk have been included to
account for that potential.

Enhanced moisture transport and storm-relative inflow along a
nocturnal low-level jet are likely to sustain a complex of storms
with some damaging wind risk Thursday night, mainly over eastern KS
into the mid MO Valley.

...Raton Mesa vicinity...

Convergence along the southward-moving front and/or upslope in its
immediate wake are expected to foster isolated to widely scattered
storms by mid afternoon along the high terrain. While vertical will
remain relatively weak, the presence of a steep-lapse-rate
environment, featuring a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will
support the potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Central and eastern Gulf Coast...

Early-day thunderstorms are expected across portions of the far
northeast Gulf and central FL Peninsula. To the north of that
convection, model guidance indicates a corridor of moderate to
strong instability developing by afternoon in the vicinity of a
stalled front. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected within
that zone of stronger air mass destabilization with steepening
low-level lapse rates and high precipitable water content supportive
of locally damaging wet microbursts.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 091738
SWODY2
SPC AC 091737

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM
ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with
scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

...From northern IL eastward into PA...
A leading shortwave trough may support early day thunderstorms over
portions of NY and PA, though probably not immediately severe. Some
chance exists for re-development from southern New England into NJ
during the afternoon as a surface trough develops, and at least
isolated severe activity is possible. Additional afternoon storms
may develop across the remainder of NY and PA as instability
develops behind the initial wave with areas of strong gusts and
marginal hail.

While isolated wind/hail may occur during the early to mid afternoon
as the air mass becomes uncapped, a greater coverage of severe
storms is expected during the late afternoon and into the evening
from southern WI/IL into IN and OH. Here, a large area of strong
instability will develop, with a persistent/deepening boundary layer
theta-e plume out of the southwest. The high PWAT, relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates, and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt will support
supercell development, with possible bowing structures with time.
Large hail, perhaps an isolated tornado, and damaging winds will be
possible.

...Northern Plains...
Southeast surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints into NE and SD
during the afternoon as strong heating occurs near a surface trough
over the High Plains/Black Hills. This will occur beneath moderate
westerly flow aloft, which will elongate hodographs and produce
favorable deep-layer shear for long-lived cells or bows. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but the conditional risk for large damaging
hail and wind is high. At least isolated cells are expected to form
near the Black Hills and into western NE where heating will be
strong, with perhaps greater storm chances increasing after 00Z into
the central Dakotas with the aid of a modest nocturnal low-level
jet.

...Southern AZ...
Substantial moisture will remain over the area Monday, with PWAT
over 1.25" and areas of 60s F dewpoints. Westerly surface winds are
forecast to develop during the afternoon over southern AZ, which
when combined with the deep easterlies aloft, will support
westward-propagating cells. Storms should form near the Rim and over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ, with locally severe gusts as
activity moves across the lowlands. A storm or two could potentially
produce small hail as well as deep-layer effective shear will be
over 30 kt.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

$$


--- ScorpioWeb v0.38a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 310606
SWODY2
SPC AC 310604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of
New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may
also extend westward into Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will prevail over the central MS Valley to the
central Appalachians while a negatively tilted upper trough
amplifies over the Interior West tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple
mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper ridge, from the
central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, supporting multiple thunderstorm
clusters all along the ridge. Across the Northeast, multiple
pronounced mid-level impulses, preceded by seasonably cooler
mid-level temperatures and stronger westerly flow atop rich
low-level moisture, will promote strong thunderstorm potential, some
of which may be severe. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also
possible along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Midwest to
Great Lakes.

...Parts of the Northeast...
Weak surface troughing will develop across the lower Hudson Valley,
along with the development of a diffuse warm front beneath the
northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Guidance currently suggests
that at least two impulses may support thunderstorm development over
southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. The first and
more subtle impulse will overspread the region during the day,
accompanied by enough upper support to promote sparse thunderstorm
development over the tri-state area. By afternoon, 7 C/km mid-level
lapse rates will overspread 70s F surface dewpoints, resulting in
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast
soundings also show appreciably curved, sizeable low-level
hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells will be possible,
accompanied by a risk of severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.

Later overnight, the approach of a more pronounced mid-level impulse
is expected. As this occurs, thunderstorms should develop around the
Great Lakes and traverse the upper ridge, moving southeast toward
the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Despite nocturnal cooling, the rich
moisture in place will limit stabilization to a degree. Should
stronger storms persist, a few instances of severe wind and hail are
possible, especially over central and southern PA.

...Portions of the Central Plains to Great Lakes...
One mid-level impulse will eject into the central Plains while
another low-amplitude upper trough traverses the Great Lakes through
the period. By evening, a weak surface cyclone will develop over the
central Plains while a diffuse warm front becomes situated over
northeastern NE to central WI. Surface dewpoints may reach up to the
mid 70s F along portions of this warm front, yielding over 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE over several locales given 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading this boundary. A belt of 50+ kt west-southwesterly 500
mb flow may also overlap with the aforementioned mid-level lapse
rates given the approach of the embedded impulse, supporting 40-50
kts of effective bulk shear and modestly curved/elongated
hodographs.

Given the strong overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, any
storm that can mature and become sustained may become multicellular
or supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. At the
moment, storm coverage should be sparse, since upper support with
the Great Lakes mid-level trough should only graze the warm frontal
zone, and the approach of the central Plains impulse should occur
late in the period. Therefore, despite the favorable convective
environment, probabilities have been maintained at Category
1/Marginal Risk.

... Southern TX/LA...
Tropical cyclone formation is possible within the next 48 hours
along the LA coastline (please see the National Hurricane Center
Outlooks for more details). This disturbance will continue to track west-northwestward along the LA/TX coastlines through Tuesday.
Vertical shear profiles accompanying this disturbance are forecast
to be quite weak, precluding tornado probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the day Wednesday. Severe
gusts are the main threat, though some hail or a tornado or two
could occur. A few severe gusts are also possible over northern
Montana Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will stall over the TN Valley, with a low-amplitude
mid-level trough poised to traverse the ridge and overspread
portions of the Northeast tomorrow (Wednesday). Meanwhile, an upper
trough will amplify across the Interior West. At the surface, a
trough will become established across the Hudson Valley area,
promoting enough lift for ascent amid a moist and unstable low-level
airmass, supporting strong to severe thunderstorm development.
Likewise, deep-layer forcing for ascent and colder temperatures
aloft will accompany a pronounced mid-level impulse rotating around
the Interior West upper trough, promoting isolated severe potential
across portions of northern MT.

...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic...
A complex severe weather setup will exist across the eastern Great
Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the entire period (12Z Wednesday
morning to 12Z Thursday morning). Guidance consensus continues to
depict a primary mid-level impulse and accompanying 50+ kt 500 mb
jet max overspreading the Hudson Valley during the day. 70+ F
surface dewpoints beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield
2500+ J/kg MLCAPE from eastern Lower Michigan to at least as far
east as central PA by afternoon peak heating. The overspreading
mid-level jet max will also encourage 40-50 kts of effective bulk
shear and modestly curved, elongated hodographs. Such conditions
will foster the potential for supercells and bowing segments
accompanied by a severe gust threat, along with isolated instances
of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

The primary concern with this meteorological setup will be the
timing and placement of thunderstorm clusters, which will ultimately
determine the severity and coverage of convective hazards. CAMs
widely vary in their solutions regarding the outcome of this event,
with some models showing early day bow echo potential and others
holding off on the main round of storms until after dark. Given the
ambient supporting environment, there may be a need for introducing
higher severe probabilities with CIG1. However, this scenario is
highly dependent on the timing of organized storms relative to the
diurnal cycle, a detail better resolved with a full suite of convection-allowing guidance. If storms are poorly timed with the
diurnal cycle (including an overturning of the warm sector during
early afternoon), severe probabilities may even need to be reduced
in places. Given the inherent lack of predictability that often
accompanies subtly forced ridging environments, prudence was
exercised in withholding higher severe probabilities this outlook.

...Portions of northern Montana...
A surface trough will deepen across central and northern MT with the south-southwestward approach of the mid-level impulse embedded
within broader upper troughing. As this occurs, a band of showers
and thunderstorms will develop along an arcing cold front poised to
sweep across the region. Ahead of the storms/front, surface
temperatures will warm into the 80s F, amid dewpoints at or below 40
F, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer extending to the 600-500
mb layer. Furthermore, strong unidirectional (southwesterly) flow
through a deep layer will promote 20-30 kts of effective bulk/speed
shear, with multicells the main storm mode expected. Efficient
evaporative cooling (given the deep and dry boundary layer) will
promote the potential for widely scattered severe gusts with the
stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 030543
SWODY2
SPC AC 030542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging
gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on
Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and
large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will amplify over the Plains states, with upper
troughs meandering over the Interior West and along the East Coast.
East of the ridge crest, multiple impulses will track southeastward
across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic, atop a surface warm frontal
boundary, serving as the impetus for thunderstorm initiation in
these areas. Given modestly stronger flow and cooler temperatures
aloft overspreading this moisture-rich surface boundary, a few
storms may become severe.

...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
At least one or more subtle mid-level impulses will pivot around the
broader East Coast trough, supporting scattered thunderstorm
initiation by afternoon. By this time, surface temperatures should
reach 90 F, amid 70 F dewpoints, yielding around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
given 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer northwesterly
flow will be in place, supporting 20-40 kts of effective bulk (speed
shear), favoring multicells and perhaps a transient supercell, the
strongest of which may produce damaging gusts or an instance of hail.

...Portions of the Midwest to Ohio Valley...
Upper support for convective initiation will be even weaker across
the Midwest/OH Valley compared to the areas closer to the East
Coast. Nonetheless, 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE along a
surface warm front, where subtle convergence will reside.
Thunderstorm coverage should be quite isolated. However, any storms
that manage to mature may become multicellular or supercellular
given 30+ kts of effective bulk shear in place. An instance or two
of severe wind or hail are possible.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 040506
SWODY2
SPC AC 040504

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.

...Ohio Valley to southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

An upper shortwave disturbance will migrate through northwesterly
flow aloft, leading to modest height falls across the region on
Saturday. As this occurs, midlevel northwesterly flow will
strengthen, supporting effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt
range. At the surface, a cold front will develop south across the
Midwest and Mid-Atlantic after 00z. Ahead of the front, a very warm
and moist airmass will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability.

Forecast guidance varies with regards to possible morning
convection, resulting in some uncertainty in the forecast for
Saturday. Early convection could be ongoing anywhere from the Lower
Ohio Valley toward the WV/VA mountains as remnants from Day 1
thunderstorm activity. Whether this early day activity will
dissipate or re-intensify as it moves into the moist and
destabilizing downstream airmass is uncertain. Regardless, the
overall environment will support afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity ahead of the southward-advancing front and along a surface
trough through the parts of the VA/NC/SD Piedmont. Organized
clusters will mainly pose a damaging wind risk as convection spreads east/southeast during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern/Central Plains vicinity...

Substantial upper ridging will be centered over the Plains on
Saturday. However, most guidance depicts one of more shortwave
disturbances migrating northeast from the central Rockies into the
NE/SD vicinity. Additionally, convection could be ongoing at the
start of the period across the Mid-MO Valley. Southeasterly
low-level flow will result in modest boundary layer moisture along a
surface trough across the northern/central High Plains, with
increasing dewpoints further east toward the MO River along a
surface boundary. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest
instability across the High Plains, with moderate to strong
instability further east.

If storms are occurring at the beginning of the period across the MO
Valley, hail and strong wind gusts will be possible, with some
intensification possible toward midday/early afternoon within the
very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment. Additional
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough over the High Plains during the late
afternoon/evening. This activity could produce strong outflow wind
gusts given a deeply mixed boundary layer and modest shear, along
with isolated large hail.

..Leitman.. 09/04/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050514
SWODY2
SPC AC 050512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle
Missouri Valley.

...MT into the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley...

The upper ridge centered over the Plains on Sunday will begin to
weaken and shift east as a western upper shortwave trough develops
eastward toward the northern Rockies. As this occurs, several
shortwave impulses will migrate through the top of the ridge over
the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer flow
also will increase later in the period across MT and the High Plains
with the approaching of the upper trough. At the surface, low
pressure will be in place across eastern MT and the western Dakotas,
with a surface trough extending southward through the central High
Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across northern ND,
while a quasi-stationary front extends northwest to southeast across
South Dakota into the MO-Valley. A moist airmass will reside along
these boundaries, and areas of moderate to strong instability are forecast.

Most guidance depicts early day convection ongoing across parts of
MN and eastern SD. While evolution of this convection is uncertain,
it seems possible that it could persist and/or strengthen as it
shifts southwest across the Mid-MO Valley through afternoon.
Additional convection is expected to develop along the surface
trough over the High Plains, near the surface warm front, surface
low, and later in the evening across much of Montana with the
approach of the upper trough. Pockets of damaging winds and hail
will be possible. If confidence increases in areas of greater storm
coverage, higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

...Southern States...

A weak low is expected to develop southward across GA as a surface
front sags southward through the period. Ahead of the front, a very
moist and unstable airmass will be in place, fostering areas of
moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer flow will remain light
and vertical shear weak, limiting organized severe potential.
However, given strong instability, high PWs, frontal forcing, and
sufficient storm coverage/clustering, isolated to scattered
strong/damaging wind gusts are expected.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 100540
SWODY2
SPC AC 100538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the
Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Nebraska/eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly flow will overspread the region, particularly from the
Dakotas into MN/WI. Cooling aloft will also support steepening
midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary layer in which
increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the region. A surface low is forecast to develop
and shift east across SD, with a surface cold front shifting
southeast through period. This front will be oriented from northeast
to southwest from northwest MN/eastern ND into central SD near the
surface low by mid to late afternoon. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low over central SD through central NE.
Corridors of moderate instability are forecast along/ahead of the
front, and thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening across northern MN.

Vertically veering wind profiles will support initial supercell
storms capable of all hazards, including damaging wind, large hail,
and a couple of tornadoes. Some hail greater than 2 inch diameter is
possible if supercell mode can be maintained. Given strong linear
ascent along the surface boundary, and an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet during the evening, initial supercells are likely to
cluster and/or grow upscale into line of convection spreading
east/northeast through the nighttime hours.

Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, and overall severe
potential more conditional, with southward extent into eastern SD/IA
and central NE. Large-scale ascent will be weaker further south, and
this could be problematic for overcoming inhibition from warmer
850-700 mb temperatures, especially through early evening. As the
surface cold front overtakes the dryline in NE overnight, elevated
convection could develop within a low-level warm advection regime.
Whether storms develop during the early evening or overnight, some
severe risk from damaging gusts and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)