WTPZ34 KNHC 191151
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
700 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES STILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND NEARING LANDFALL ALONG
THE WESTERN MICHOACAN OR COLIMA COAST...
...HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 103.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.4 West. Dolores is
moving faster toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue until landfall. Dolores is
forecast to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico
within the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional intensification is possible prior to
landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity
when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall, and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of
the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the
warning area, and outside preparations should be complete.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday
morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely
produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches are expected for western Oaxaca, as well as
southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)