ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.

... Synopsis ...

Midlevel ridging will be in place from the eastern Great Basin into
the Plains at the start of the forecast period, while persistent
northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Farther west, an upper trough will gradually advanced inland
across California into the Great Basin by the end of the period.

At the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the
Southeast and adjacent Atlantic will maintain southerly flow across
the central US. This will promote a gradual moisture recovery across
the central Plains into the southern Great Lakes. A weak frontal
boundary pushing south through portions of the central Plains and
Great Lakes will denote the northern edge of the moisture return.

... Lower Great Lakes ...

Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone may be delayed until
later in the day or evening as moisture slowly returns northward.
While relatively cold temperatures aloft should support steep lapse
rates, the quality and depth of the boundary-layer moisture is
expected to be the biggest unknown. The NAM is the most aggressive
with the depth and quality of the moisture return, and if moisture
quality is close to what is shown in the NAM, enough instability
should materialize to take advantage of the stronger vertical shear
to support a few organized cells capable of gusty winds or small
hail. However, most model guidance is less aggressive with the
quality of the moisture return so no probabilities have been added
at this time.

... South-central US ...

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period. Modest vertical shear and elevated instability may support a
couple strong thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds.
However, overall thunderstorm intensity should wane through much of
the period as upper ridging overspreads the region.

... Western US ...

As the upper trough moves inland, ascent will increase across the
Pacific Northwest, northern California, and portions of the Great
Basin. Within the Central Valley and nearby terrain, pockets of
diurnal heating, combined with cool midlevel temperatures may
support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Despite this modest instability, weak vertical shear should limit
any organized severe potential.

..Marsh.. 04/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 230601
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into
the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...

Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.

Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...

Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 030505
SWODY2
SPC AC 030503

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will dig southward across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Monday. At the same time, a upper low near CA and
attendant trough will pivot eastward toward the Southwest. At the
surface, low pressure over Ontario will develop northeast toward
James Bay while a trailing cold front moves southeast across the northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity.
Meanwhile, a second surface low is forecast to deepen in the
vicinity of western KS/OK with a dryline extending southward across
central KS/western OK and west-central TX. Modest southerly return
flow will transport mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints northward
across OK/eastern KS into MO. More modest boundary layer moisture is
expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the Midwest.

...Eastern KS toward Lake Michigan and western OH...

Modest boundary layer moisture and uncertainty in timing/location of
the surface front contribute to uncertainty in severe potential for
Monday. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft will support steep
midlevel lapse rates and a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE appears
likely ahead of the front. A lead shortwave impulse will migrate
across the OH Valley during the day. This may provide sufficient
forcing for ascent for isolated thunderstorm development within an
uncapped and modestly sheared airmass. Strong storms could produce
small hail and gusty winds. Additional strong storms are possible
during the afternoon further to the northwest near the surface front
from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer
moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading
to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer
could support strong wind gusts.

Stronger ascent will arrive after 00z across the central Plains and
Mid-MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple
points in central/eastern KS and into MO as the surface cold front
drops southward. This activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts.

...Southwest OK vicinity...

Some forecast guidance develops thunderstorms near the dryline late afternoon/early evening across the southwest OK vicinity. Large
scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region and capping may
preclude thunderstorm development. However, strong heating west of
the dryline and strong convergence in model guidance are noted. If a
storm could break the cap, a severe risk could develop. However, coverage/temporal risk would likely be limited and confidence in
this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 101722
SWODY2
SPC AC 101720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

... Overview ...

As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.

... Southeast US ...

Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.

Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 110555
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far
northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois,
northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwest Great Lakes...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the
surface, a low will move southeastward across Wisconsin as a cold
front advances southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front in the
afternoon as surface heating takes place and low-level convergence
becomes more focused. The storms are forecast to move toward an
instability axis located from southeast Kansas to north-central
Illinois. Along this axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon with 0-6
km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. Low-level lapse rates
are also forecast to become steep just ahead of the front. This
environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat, with
hail and strong wind gusts possible. The strongest instability and
steepest mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be further southwest
into parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, where a
locally greater hail threat will be possible in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 120541
SWODY2
SPC AC 120539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on
Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians,
northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in
parts of western Montana.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...

An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great
Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute
to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to
scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming
due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in
the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies/Great Basin...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move through the northwestern
U.S. on Wednesday as a 60 to 80 knot jet streak passes eastward into
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a trough will develop from
western Montana southward into Idaho and Utah, ahead of a cold front
passing through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface trough, an
axis of instability will be in place by afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the 80s F. In response, thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain from western Montana southward into the
deserts of eastern Idaho and northern Utah. Near the instability
axis, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep likely
exceeding 9 C/km. This will support a threat for isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the northern Rockies.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 200554
SWODY2
SPC AC 200552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.

...TX/OK Panhandles...

Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.

...Middle Texas Coast...

Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Georgia...

A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...

A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 260545
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of
Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few
damaging gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as
a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward
the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the
Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a
trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with
strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common,
aiding instability.

Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central
CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the
afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating
within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving
northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds.

Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper
trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...

Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA
within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This
activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the
air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this
activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass
should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates
aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak
heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity,
with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer
shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe
wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270526
SWODY2
SPC AC 270525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, and into central Oregon/Washington. A few
damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

...Synopsis & Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a
leading midlevel speed max forecast to move from UT northward across
ID, OR and WA. Cooling aloft will occur along with 40-50 kt 500 mb
winds enhancing deep-layer shear. A surface trough will also deepen
during the afternoon roughly from UT into eastern WA, with strong
heating and steepening lapse rates aiding destabilization.

Scattered storms are forecast to develop by early afternoon over
central OR, with additional activity extending northeastward across
northern ID, eastern WA and northwest MT. Though total CAPE values
are questionably high by some models, sufficient instability will
exist, along with favorable large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates. This will favor northwestward-moving cells and perhaps a few
bows, with at least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail expected.

Elsewhere, scattered storms are likely during the afternoon and
evening from KS/OK into the Southeast. Winds aloft and shear will be
weak across this entire region, and severe storms are largely not
expected. Still, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 280552
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern
New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward northern
Louisiana on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur
across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central
High Plains.

...MT...

An upper low will weaken as it moves from the Great Basin to the
central Rockies, with cool temperatures aloft persisting over much
of the region. A surface trough will deepen over central MT with a
cold front moving across ID and into western MT. Daytime heating and
steepening lapse rates may aid wind gust potential as storms develop
late in the day from western into central MT. Relatively strong
upper-level winds will elongate hodographs, and may support cells
producing marginal hail.

...Central High Plains...

Low-level moisture will spread westward into northern CO and eastern
WY as a low pressure trough develops from MT into eastern CO during
the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints will result in
perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE supporting storms forming from southeast WY
into the Front Range. These storms may produce strong to locally
severe outflow winds.

...Southern Plains...

An upper-level jet of 50-70 kt will move into southern NM and
western TX, though midlevel winds will be at or below 30 kt. Strong
heating will occur over the region while southeast surface winds
maintain moisture influx. Storms should form during the afternoon
from eastern NM and spread across western TX and perhaps into
southwest KS. Cool midlevel temperatures may support marginal hail,
though gusty outflow winds will be the most common threat.
Additionally, a few storms may occur farther east from OK into
northeast TX, AR and LA where dewpoints and instability will be
greater. Any storms that can form within the uncapped air mass would
likely move southeastward with isolated strong gust potential.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 290608
SWODY2
SPC AC 290606

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of
stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The
amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat
suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present
from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to
strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the
Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early
Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the
weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this
activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern
Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface
boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints)
will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8
C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With
the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will
be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be
reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake
breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional
models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of
northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of
40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of
buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in
storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been
added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard
with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur.

Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South
Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an
increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases
during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps
isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these
areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated.

...Northeast...
Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of
Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and
limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been
maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be
favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected
to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the
main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater
tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to
be monitored.

...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska...
A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central
High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central
Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm
development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this
occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable
of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level
shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns
over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat.

..Wendt.. 06/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050445
SWODY2
SPC AC 050443

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe
weather is possible across parts of northern Minnesota through the
eastern and central Dakotas, as well as across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, Monday afternoon into evening.

...Discussion...
Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an
associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly
prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and
central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend
to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern
Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable
mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario
and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.

It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing,
and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the
north of the international border, may provide support for stronger
secondary surface cyclogenesis across the southern Hudson Bay
vicinity by Monday night.

To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may
continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.

In association with this evolving regime, the potential for
organized severe thunderstorm activity still appears generally low
and dependent on sub-synoptic developments with rather low
predictability at this time frame. This continues to be reflected
in latest model output, including convection allowing and related
guidance, which exhibit sizable spread concerning potential
convective evolution and locations with higher probabilities for
thunderstorm development.

...Northern Great Plains...
Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to
pass to the north of the international border through this period.
However, there appears at least some continuing signal in model
output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak
pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward
suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development by
late Monday afternoon. If this occurs, moderate to large potential instability, in the presence of at least modest shear beneath 30-40
kt 500 mb flow, probably will be conducive to storms capable of
producing severe hail and wind, before perhaps tending to be
undercut by a southward advancing cold front trailing the developing
Canadian cyclone.

...Mid Atlantic...
The timing and/or location of highest thunderstorm probabilities
across the region differs notably between the REFS and HREF
calibrated thunderstorm guidance, and deep-layer mean flow and shear
will be rather weak. However, destabilization within broad, weak
surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge might become
sufficient to focus scattered thunderstorm development with
potential to produce localized damaging surface gusts Monday
afternoon into early evening.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 090458
SWODY2
SPC AC 090456

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the
south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday
afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs.
To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of
the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly
prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of
the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late
Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is
also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern
U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream
positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great
Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based
on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies
to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels,
though perhaps weaker than Thursday.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most
certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a
corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates
associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to
850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The
latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain,
and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow
from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies.
However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing
low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment
conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters
with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern
portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley
through Friday evening.

In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough, convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow
into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable,
in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong
thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of
producing severe hail and wind.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA
INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina
into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley,
will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge
center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A
weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to
slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north.
On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly
mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest.

At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn
Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the
Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South Carolina.


... North Florida into South Carolina ...

To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface
dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered
thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating.
Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared
to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude
widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong,
damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a
weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus
thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been
maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should
be less than in preceding days.


... Arizona ...

A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on
Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels
and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some
potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters.
These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds
given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant
convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour
out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient
convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this
uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat
at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind
probabilities.


... Western Montana ...

Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher
terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest
surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and
overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop,
strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong,
gusty outflows.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 140544
SWODY2
SPC AC 140542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on
Wednesday.

... Synopsis ...

A broad mid-level ridge across the central United States will take
on an increasingly negative tilt on Wednesday, with the elongated
highest heights within the ridge found from the eastern Dakotas
southeast into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This
will occur in large part due to an eastern Pacific closed low
building the ridge axis northward into western Canada, a strong
shortwave trough impinging upon the northeast periphery of the
ridge, and a closed mid-level low undercutting southern portions of
the ridge as it begins to be drawn northwestward toward the main
belt of westerlies.

At the surface, generally hot conditions will be maintained across
most of the CONUS -- the exception largely being northern New
England. A moist airmass will remain entrenched across much of the
eastern US, with a southward advancing surface boundary across the
Northeast serving to delineate the warm, moist airmass to the south
from the cooler, drier airmass to the north.


... Northern New Jersey north/east into far southern New England ...

An unstable airmass will be in place along and south of the
aforementioned surface front where MUCAPE values should increase to
between 500-1500 J/kg during the afternoon. The front will be on the
southern fringe of the greater mid-level flow, contributing to
effective-layer shear on the order of 45 knots.

Modest height falls may overspread the frontal boundary during the
afternoon in association with an approaching mid-level speed
maximum. This may provide enough forcing for widely scattered
thunderstorm development in the region from the lower Great Lakes
into the northern Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. The
best signal for initiation is along the coastal areas of southern
New England/New York, which will limit their potential to produce
severe weather before moving offshore. Should thunderstorm
initiation occur earlier in the day (and thus farther inland) or
thunderstorm coverage is greater than currently expected, a marginal
threat for large hail and damaging winds may be realized and severe probabilities would need to be introduced in a later outlook.


... Western Montana ...

Thunderstorms will once again be possible on Wednesday, thanks in
large part to the continued presence of mid-level moisture and
modest diurnal heating. Model guidance suggests that widespread
cloud cover may limit afternoon heating, which would impact overall
instability and resulting thunderstorm intensity. Should robust
convection develop, the region remains beneath enhanced mid-level
flow that may be transported down to the surface as strong
thunderstorm winds/outflow. However, confidence in this occurring is
too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities with this
outlook.

..Marsh.. 07/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 160607
SWODY2
SPC AC 160605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
of the Upper Great Lakes region.

... Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes ...

A subtle mid-level vorticity maximum evident in the 16/00 UTC
guidance is expected to move southeastward across northern Minnesota
and the Upper Great Lakes on Friday morning, supporting ongoing
thunderstorms across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. This activity
should spread southeastward through the morning with at least a
marginal severe hail/wind threat.

During the day, a surface frontal zone draped from northern
Illinois/Indiana should begin to lift northward, ahead of a surface
cold front moving through the northern Plains. To the south of the
warm front and ahead of the cold front, diurnal heating may be
somewhat muted by smoke and residual cloud cover from morning
convection. However, increasing low-level moisture should still
support moderate destabilization by the afternoon, especially where
stronger diurnal heating occurs. Moderate mid-level northwesterly
flow will provide enough vertical shear to support organized storms.

As the stronger mid-level wave approaches the region during the late
afternoon and evening, some potential exists for surface-based
thunderstorm redevelopment -- especially near the intersection of
the cold front and effective warm front. Large hail and strong
thunderstorm winds will be possible with these storms, and the
low-level wind field would support at least some potential for a
tornado with any sustained surface-based storm during the evening.
With time this activity should evolve into one or more clusters of thunderstorms moving southeast overnight across the northern Great Lakes.


... Western Montana and Northern Idaho ...

A relatively favorable thermodynamic environment will once again be
in place across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho by
Friday afternoon. Relatively steep low- and mid-level lapse rates,
sufficient moisture, and diurnal heating should support afternoon
SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, as suggested by the
20260716 00UTC HREF. Mid-/upper-level flow will be less than in
previous days as the region becomes increasingly displaced from a mid-/upper-level trough/low moving northward into southwest Canada.
That said, effective-layer shear on the order of 25-35 knots will be
possible, especially where east/southeasterly surface winds are maintained.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
and evening hours. The strongest thunderstorm clusters will be
capable of large hail. Strong to severe thunderstorm gusts will be
possible as well, especially where convective outflows can
consolidate amid the steep low-/mid-level lapse rates. Most 16/00
UTC HREF members show explicit convective outflow gusts approaching
60 mph, supporting a localized severe threat.

If convective coverage appears greater than currently forecast,
severe probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks.


... Ohio Valley ...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Localized downburst winds could occur within this
environment, though deep-layer flow/shear appears too weak to
support an organized severe threat. Additionally, 16/00 UTC guidance
suggests early initiation across the region, which would limit the
development of widespread steep low-level lapse rates, which may
provide some limit on a more widespread, storm-scale driven wind
threat. This region will continue to be evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 220522
SWODY2
SPC AC 220520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However,
locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the
central High Plains.

...Discussion...

In the mean, an amplified upper ridge will persist across he West,
with the subtropical high over TX shifting west toward the Four
Corners vicinity through the period. An upper shortwave trough
embedded within the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will
migrate southeast from the central Rockies to the Mid/Lower MO
Valley through early Friday morning.

Southerly low-level flow across the Plains will result in a belt of
modest boundary-layer moisture across the central High Plains. Steep
midlevel lapse rates will foster weak instability across parts of
WY/CO into western KS. Scattered thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon and spread east/southeast across the central High
Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer will support isolated strong
outflow gusts. However, weak vertical shear and limited instability
will preclude severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A prominent mid-level ridge will remain anchored over central North
America with the amplification of a downstream trough across the
eastern CONUS. At the surface, ridging will be maintained over the
Northeast with a weak front along the Southeast coastal areas. That
boundary will extend northwest to low pressure over the northern and
central Plains.

...Northern Rockies...
Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough
cresting the ridge axis will combine with heating along the high
terrain to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development Saturday
afternoon. Area forecast soundings exhibit steep low/mid-level lapse
rates, a deeply mixed boundary layer, and MLCAPE approaching 1000
J/kg. Moreover, some enhancement of mid-level flow and resultant
vertical shear is forecast, which may support some storm
organization with the primary hazard being isolated severe wind gusts.

...South Dakota into the upper Midwest...
Cyclogenesis is forecast over western SD along a weak front
extending from central MT into MN/WI. The air mass along and south
of the boundary in SD is expected to become quite hot with
temperatures of 100-110. And while moisture will remain limited, the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute
to modest instability during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
Isolated storm development is expected by afternoon into early
evening near and south of the front atop the hot, well-mixed
boundary layer with latent cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer
potentially leading to severe outflow winds.

Farther east into MN and WI, a significantly more moist boundary
layer is expected in the vicinity of the front, yielding a
moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon. However,
notable height rises are forecast with the expansion of the upper
ridge into the region, leading to uncertainty in whether
surface-based storms will develop due to the strengthening cap. On
the condition that storms develop and become sustained, seasonably
strong vertical shear will exist to support supercells with the
primary hazard being large hail. Low hail and wind probabilities
have been included in this forecast to acknowledge the conditional threat.

Saturday night into early Sunday, there is some model signal for
elevated storm development along the nocturnal low-level jet. In
that scenario, sufficient instability and vertical shear are
expected to exist to support some severe weather risk.

...Southeast Arizona...
A slight enhancement of easterly mid-level flow is forecast across
the region, atop a modestly unstable, but steep-lapse-rate
environment. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the Gila Mountains and adjacent high terrain by afternoon with
a subsequent movement toward the lower desert floor. Some cold pool organization is possible in areas of storm clustering with an
associated risk for locally severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 300530
SWODY2
SPC AC 300528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward
into the Ozark Plateau, and over the central and southern High
Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic occurrences of
damaging wind and large hail will be the primary hazards with a
conditional risk for a few tornadoes, mainly in Missouri.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough from the upper Midwest into mid MO Valley Friday
morning will translate into the mid MS Valley with a belt of 30-35
kt winds forecast within the western through southern periphery of
that feature. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to
undergo slight deepening while developing from northwest or central
IA at the start of the period into southern IL by late Friday night.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance south/southeast into
the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.

...Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ozark Plateau...

Mainly elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
at 12Z Friday across portions of IA and MO within a zone of forcing
for ascent ahead of the mid-level system, and warm advection and
moisture transport along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Those mechanisms
are likely to sustain deep convection through the morning into
afternoon east of the surface low, mainly across IL. In the wake of
the early-day storms and where cloud breaks can occur, daytime
heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
is expected to yield a relatively narrow axis of moderate
instability with MLCAPE of 1000-2500+ J/kg.

Additional surface-based storms are expected to develop by early- to
mid afternoon initially near the surface low in south-central or
southeast IA with subsequent southward development along or ahead of
the front across MO. The 00Z CAMs suggest that the initial storm
mode will be semi-discrete, which is consistent with model forecasts
of 30-35 kt deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely perpendicular
to the initiating boundary.

While some marginally severe hail is possible with any supercell
structures, warm mid-level temperatures will contribute to
considerable melting, potentially limiting that threat. Damaging
wind potential may be limited by storm mode with a more substantial
threat being dependent on upscale growth into clusters or a
cold-pool-driven MCS. Tornado potential remains unclear as the
models suggest the strongest low-level shear will remain displaced
to the east of the primary instability axis. That being said, a
conditional threat for a few tornadoes appears possible with: 1)
storms forming near or to the south of the surface low, should
modest low-level CAPE develop in the presence of locally enhanced
vertical vorticity, and 2) any supercells that can form in the warm
sector and move east into the stronger low-level shear forecast
across eastern MO during the late afternoon into evening.

Given the above uncertainties, a level 1/Marginal Risk will be
maintained with this forecast.


...Colorado and New Mexico...

Initially northerly, post-frontal winds Friday morning are expected
to switch to northeast and then east by afternoon into evening,
supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along favored
terrain. MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg will coincide with
30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, suggesting the potential for at least
transient supercell structures capable of large hail. With time,
storms may grow upscale into clusters with a relatively deep,
well-mixed boundary layer enhancing the potential for locally severe
wind gusts. This is especially the case across parts of eastern NM
Friday evening where the merging of the terrain-induced storms and
cold-frontal storms could organize a more substantial cold pool.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 030530
SWODY2
SPC AC 030529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail appear possible in southeast Arizona, south-central
Colorado, and north-central and northeast New Mexico Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds may occur with
stronger storms in the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...

A broad, cyclonic flow regime is forecast from the northern Rockies
into the Great Lakes, to the north of an elongating upper high over
the Lower CO Valley into the southern Rockies. Within that pattern,
there is a model signal that a low-amplitude disturbance and
associated mid-level wind maximum will move through the northern
Plains and mid MO Valley. Elsewhere, an upper low centered over the
southern Appalachians Tuesday morning is expected to weaken while
slowly shifting north-northwest.

At the surface, a front will move into the upper Great Lakes with
the boundary trailing southwest through the mid MO Valley into the
southern High Plains. A weak surface low may evolve along the front
over the mid or lower MO Valley Tuesday afternoon into evening.


...Southeast Arizona...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are anticipated by mid afternoon
along the Gila Mountains and high terrain nearer to the
international border within a moderately unstable environment with
MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. The presence of a deep, well-mixed
boundary layer will enhance evaporative cooling potential in the
sub-cloud layer with an associated risk for locally severe wind
gusts as storms advance southwest into the lower desert during the
late afternoon into evening. Some threat for marginally severe hail
may exist with the storms developing along the international border
owing to slightly stronger deep-layer shear.


...South-central Colorado and north-central and northeast New
Mexico...

A relatively small spatial corridor of modest instability and 30-35
kt of deep-layer shear is forecast to materialize in the lee of the
Sangre De Cristo Mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening. The
favored corridor extends from where the surface front intersects the
high terrain northward within the immediate post-frontal upslope.
Several of the 00Z CAMs indicate the potential for isolated to
widely scattered storms capable of a few occurrences of marginally
severe hail and/or locally severe wind gusts.


...Carolinas...

Forcing for ascent associated with the deep-layer low is expected to
contribute to an increase in thunderstorms through the day. Where
stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist boundary layer
will support MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. While stronger upper-level
winds are forecast within the eastern periphery of the low, vertical
shear through the lower half of the storm depth is expected to
remain relatively weak, limiting the potential for storm
organization. Nonetheless, steepening low-level lapse rates and a
high precipitable water may enhance wet microburst potential, with a
few damaging wind gusts possible.


...Middle and Lower Missouri Valley into the upper Midwest...

Consensus of the 00Z models suggests the majority of thunderstorm
activity will likely remain elevated to the north of the front in NE
and IA within a strongly sheared, but only marginally unstable
environment. Poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit any
severe hail threat. There is some model signal for isolated storm
development during the afternoon into evening along the front from
the lower MO Valley into southern/eastern WI. However, given that
there is considerable model variability in the degree of instability
ahead of the boundary, and that vertical shear will be somewhat
marginal across the warm sector, no probabilities will be included
in this forecast.

..Mead.. 08/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 040557
SWODY2
SPC AC 040556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central
Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...MO...southern IA...central IL...
A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes
on Wednesday, with a weak surface trough roughly from northern MI
southwestward into northern MO. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will exist from MO into IA and IL, supporting around 1500
J/kg MUCAPE. This, combined with around 35 kt deep shear should
support scattered strong to severe storms with mixed mode. Locally
damaging wind gusts are most likely as storms congeal and produce
outflow. A few of the initial cells may produce marginal hail.

...Northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles...
Storms should form over the high terrain of northeast NM after 20Z
with a modest northwest flow regime aloft. High pressure will exist
over the central Plains, but surface winds will back to easterly and
provide moisture into the region late in the day. Strong heating and
steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong wind gusts.

...Southeast AZ...
Westerly surface winds with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints and daytime
heating will support storms over the eastern Mogollon Rim / White
Mtns, with some west/southwest propagation possible. MUCAPE should
rise to at least 1500 J/kg, with PWAT near 1.25" supporting locally
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050550
SWODY2
SPC AC 050548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity.

...Central SD into northwest NE...
A shortwave trough will move southeastward across SK/MB, with at
least some influence extending southward across the northern Plains.
A surface trough will develop southward into central SD and western
NE, where strong heating will occur. A narrow band of uncapped
instability is forecast, with several models indicating scattered
storms late in the day. Southerly 850 mb winds over 20 kt will
aid/maintain moisture into the area, and forecast soundings show
marginally favorable hodographs for supercells. Localized hail may
occur initially, with some clustering and wind potential into the
early evening.

...Southern KS into northwest OK...
A surface trough/wind shift is forecast to exist from southern KS
into northern OK, with southerly winds and strong heating to the
south. Near/north of the boundary, winds will remain southeasterly
with higher dewpoints. General model consensus is for the deeply
mixed boundary layer to support an uncapped air mass, with a zone of
storms developing. These will likely produce strong outflow, and a
few severe gusts may occur.

...Northeast...
Southwest winds aloft will persist over the region as an upper high
remains over the Atlantic and a shortwave trough approaches the
Lower Great Lakes by late afternoon. Height tendencies will remain
neutral from NY into WV/VA during the day, but strong heating, PWAT
near 2.00" and sufficient MUCAPE should aid scattered storm
development near a weak surface trough after 19Z. This would include
from south-central NY into central PA and across the higher terrain
of western VA. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 060541
SWODY2
SPC AC 060539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur from Iowa across Wisconsin
and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind
gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally
damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast.

...IA...southeast MN...WI...Upper MI...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will move across the northern Plains
and into the Upper MS Valley, with a cold front extending from
northwest WI into IA by late afternoon. A moist air mass with 70s F
dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE. Supporting the potentially strong instability will be
relatively cool 500 mb temperatures to around -10 C.

Storms are likely to form during the afternoon along the front with
scattered marginal hail or strong wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will
not be particularly strong. Some potential may develop for an MCS
over southern areas including IA, and this area will be monitored
for potential greater wind probabilities.

...Northern VA into PA and southern NY...
Midlevel southwesterlies around 25 kt will exist across the
northeastern states on Friday, with weak height falls occurring as a
primary upper trough moves across the Great Lake region. In the low
levels, west/southwest winds around the Atlantic high will maintain
a warm/moist air mass, which when heated during the afternoon should
yield up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, especially near the coastal areas
where dewpoints will be higher.

Despite lack of any surface boundaries, model consensus is for
scattered storms to develop from northern VA/MD into central to
eastern PA and across southern NY during the afternoon. Shear will
be weak but a few clusters of storms may produce gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070558
SWODY2
SPC AC 070557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place on Saturday over
much of the north-central U.S. as the southern edge of a jet streak
moves across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward through the Dakotas. To the south of the front, a
moist axis is forecast to be in place from central South Dakota
southward into southern Nebraska and eastward into north-central
Missouri. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop
along the moist axis by afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be
relatively weak throughout the region which will keep convection
isolated. The most favorable areas for isolated thunderstorm
development could be over central and eastern Nebraska, where some
models focus low-level convergence near a low-level jet in the
evening. Additional storms could develop along a moisture gradient
in northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Nebraska into
southern South Dakota in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the
35 to 45 knot range with steep low-level lapse rates. This could
support supercells and organized multicells capable of severe wind
gusts and hail. Isolated severe gusts could also occur southeastward
along and near the instability gradient in northern Missouri.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the Colorado
Front Range and central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Some amplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on
Thursday across the central/eastern CONUS. An upper ridge initially
over the lower MS Valley is forecast to expand and build northward
into parts of the Great Plains. To the east of building ridge, a
seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move southeastward across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast. A
surface low is forecast to remain in place across the south-central
Plains. A nearly stationary front is forecast to extend
east-northeast of the low toward the lower MO Valley, and then east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley.

...Central Plains into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Isolated severe potential remains evident in the vicinity of the
surface front on Thursday, though confidence in the details remains
low. Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing
at the start of the period from eastern NE into parts of IA/northern
MO. Depending on the extent to which the early-day convection can
propagate within the rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy
along the frontal zone, some severe threat could spread
east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley through the day.

Otherwise, isolated storms may develop near/north of the front
through the day, with an increase in coverage expected Thursday
evening within a warm-advection regime. Generally modest and
front-parallel mid/upper-level flow may lead to training storms and
a tendency for convection to be undercut or generally remain
somewhat elevated. However, deep-layer shear will still be modestly
supportive of organized convection within the moist and unstable
environment, with some potential for isolated damaging gusts and
hail.

...CO Front Range into the adjacent High Plains...
To the north/northwest of the primary surface low, moist easterly
low-level flow will support moderate to locally strong
destabilization from the CO Front Range into parts of the central
High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain modest, but
veering wind profiles will provide sufficient effective shear for
some storm organization. Isolated hail and locally severe gusts will
be possible with the strongest storms in this region.
Isolated to widely scattered storms will also be possible within the
hot and well-mixed regime near/south of the front and surface low.
Weak deep-layer shear should limit storm organization in this
regime, but steep low-level lapse rates could support localized
severe gusts.

...Northeast...
Seasonably strong mid/upper-level flow will overspread the Northeast
on Thursday. However, low-level flow will remain rather weak, and
generally modest moisture and lapse rates will limit
destabilization. MLCAPE Of 500-1000 J/kg will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms across northern New England. There
will be some displacement between the strongest deep-layer flow and
more favorable buoyancy. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany
the strongest storms, but confidence in sufficient destabilization
remains too low for severe probabilities at this time.

...Southeast...
Thunderstorm development is expected across parts of AL/GA/SC on
Thursday, within a very warm and moist environment. Guidance varies
regarding the extent to which early-day convection and related
outflow move into the region from the north, and the influence any
such convection/outflow would have on storm development and
evolution later in the day. In general, deep-layer flow/shear will
be weak, but the very warm and moist environment could support
localized downburst potential. Confidence in an organized severe
threat is currently low, but if trends support the presence of any
outflow boundaries or remnant MCVs emanating from upstream, then
wind probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this region.

...Great Basin...
Storm development is again expected across parts of the Great Basin
on Thursday afternoon, with coverage potentially aided by a midlevel
trough approaching the region from central/southern CA. Deep-layer
shear will remain modest at best, but favorable lapse rates and
cooling temperatures aloft could support relatively vigorous
updrafts with potential for localized strong to severe gusts.
Uncertainty remains regarding the organization of any severe threat,
but wind probabilities may eventually be needed for this area as well.

..Dean.. 08/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130601
SWODY2
SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High
Plains into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on
Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge initially covering parts of the lower MS Valley and
Southeast is forecast to build northward on Friday. Despite the
building ridge, multiple MCVs may traverse the periphery of the
ridge, helping to focus strong to locally severe storm development
within a moist and unstable environment extending from the central
Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

...Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic...
Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Friday
morning across parts of the Ohio Valley. Guidance varies regarding
the organization/intensity of this morning convection, and whether
it is associated with a well-defined MCV. In general, an isolated
wind-damage threat could accompany the morning convection before it
weakens, with some rejuvenation of wind-damage potential possible
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and NC, in conjunction with diurnal heating/destabilization. Some clustering and locally greater
wind-damage potential may evolve across some part of the region, but uncertainty remains rather high regarding the details.

The 12/00Z NAM is an aggressive outlier, depicting a strong MCV
approaching the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon, and
substantial destabilization farther north across the Mid-Atlantic
compared to other guidance. While confidence in this particular
scenario is low, some expansion was made to the Marginal Risk across
the Mid-Atlantic and NC, to account for uncertainty regarding the
most favored corridor.

...East-central Plains into the Midwest...
Elevated convection will also likely be ongoing Friday morning from
eastern NE into parts of IA/IL and vicinity. An isolated severe
threat cannot be ruled out with this convection, though early-day
storms may tend to diminish in conjunction with a weakening
warm-advection regime.

In the wake of morning convection, moderate to strong buoyancy is
expected to develop near/north of the outflow-influenced frontal
zone during the afternoon, aided by rich low-level moisture. Veering
low-level wind profiles near/north of the front will result in
favorable effective SRH, though mid/upper-level flow will be modest
at best and may weaken somewhat with height.

Most guidance suggests an MCV may emerge from the central High
Plains and move along the periphery of the ridge through the
afternoon/evening, though the timing and trajectory of such a
feature remains uncertain. Any MCV-related uptick in storm coverage
would result in a greater potential for organized severe storms.
Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms will still be possible.
The favorable effective SRH could support initial supercell
development, with some potential for all severe hazards. The weak to
modest mid/upper-level flow could result in a quick transition to
more of a cluster mode, potentially increasing wind-damage
potential.

...CO Front Range into the central High Plains...
Low-level east/southeasterly flow will again promote moderate
destabilization and scattered storm development in the vicinity of
the CO Front Range Friday afternoon. Deep-layer flow/shear will
generally be weak to modest, but the strongest cells may become
capable of producing isolated hail and localized severe gusts.
Farther south/east, high-based convection may develop into parts of
the south-central High Plains, within a hot and well-mixed
environment. Localized severe gusts could accompany these high-based
storms.

Friday evening into the overnight, expanding outflow and an
increasing low-level jet may allow for one or more upscale-growing
clusters to develop and move across western KS (and perhaps
southwest NE). The intensity and longevity of any such clusters
could be limited by weak mid/upper-level flow, but some threat for
strong to severe gusts could persist into early Saturday morning.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 190546
SWODY2
SPC AC 190544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE MID SOUTH...AND THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the
Mid Atlantic, from Nebraska into Wisconsin, and over parts of the
Mid South.

...From NE into northwest WI...
Mid to upper level northwest winds will increase across the region,
with 30-40 kt at 500 mb common. At the surface, low pressure will
develop into northern MN with a cold front extending southwestward
across eastern SD and into northern NE by 00Z.

Although high pressure will exist east of this area, pockets of 60s
dewpoints will still exist ahead of the front, and, temperatures
aloft will be cool. Daytime heating will thus support
destabilization along the front, with scattered storms from
northeast MN/northern WI into NE. Favorable deep-layer shear around
40 kt along with the cool air aloft will support cells capable of
hail. Isolated hail near 2.00" cannot be ruled out over NE, but this
will depend on actual moisture return and potential for stronger
than forecast instability.

...Mid Atlantic...
Weak low pressure is forecast to translate eastward along a front
which will move into southern PA/central NJ, while another surface
low develops into eastern VA/northeast NC with a increasing
convergence there. Across this small warm sector, upper 60s to 70s F
dewpoints will lead to a zone of moderate instability, and scattered
storms should develop from southeast PA/NJ into MD, DE, and eastern
VA. Additional activity may develop southwestward into northern NC.
20-30 kt mean winds above 700 mb will support clusters of cells
moving southeastward during the late afternoon, with strong to
locally severe wind gusts possible. Isolated marginal hail cannot be
ruled out as upper level temperatures will be cool.

...Mid South...
A surface trough will develop from the Red River eastward across AR
and into northern MS, with a weak wind shift providing a focus for
storm development. CAM guidance continues to show a cluster of
storms developing after 21Z over northern MS into southwest TN. The
environment will be very warm and moist, with temperatures near 100
F and precipitable water values near 2.00". Shear will be weak, and
storms are likely to produce strong outflow winds, possibly severe
downbursts. Isolated marginal hail cannot be ruled out as
temperatures aloft will be relatively cool.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 210550
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ARKANSAS AND VICINITY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible in the Ohio Valley and Arkansas
vicinity. Severe gusts are possible across the central High Plains
and northern Idaho into western Montana.

...Northern Idaho and western Montana...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest on
Saturday with modest diffluence ahead of it during the day. Strong
heating should result in steep lapse rates and weak instability
across the region. Storms should develop over the mountains by
midday and advance northeast. As 6km flow strengthens to ~40 knots
by mid-afternoon, adequate shear should be in place for a few
organized storms. The steep lapse rates and inverted-v thermodynamic
profile will support severe wind gusts as the primary threat.

...Central High Plains...
Diurnal, terrain driven thunderstorms will develop by early
afternoon and eventually move into the adjacent Plains by late afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to potentially
strong instability across the Plains with moderately steep lapse
rates and dewpoints perhaps into the low 60s. The primary limiting
factor will be shear with less than 30 knots of flow below 300mb.
However, enough flow should be present, when combined with the
moderate to strong instability, to support some storms capable of
severe wind gusts.

...Arkansas and Vicinity...
The most favorable environment across the CONUS on Saturday appears
to be from eastern Kansas to Arkansas beneath a belt of stronger
mid-level flow where moderate to strong instability may also be in
place. This environment would even support supercells. However,
storm coverage remains uncertain. Added a small 5% in the Arkansas
vicinity where at least isolated storms appear most likely. However,
with relatively nebulous forcing, perhaps related to remaining
convection from Friday, confidence is low where the strongest storms
may occur.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Saturday and become negatively tilted toward the end of the period.
As this occurs, a surface low will deepen somewhat across southern
Ontario with a cold front sweeping across Ohio and northern Kentucky
through the day. Despite relatively weak heating across the region
due to extensive cloud cover, moderate instability is forecast to
develop amid upper 60s dewpoints and cooling temperatures aloft.
This, combined with 25 to 30 knots of shear, should be sufficient
for multicells and occasional supercells capable of primarily
damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MONTANA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the
Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.

...Montana...
A deamplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific
Northwest into eastern British Columbia on Sunday. As this occurs, a
lee cyclone across Montana will advect moisture northwestward into
central Montana with some 60F dewpoints expected. Moderate mid-level
flow along the southern periphery of this mid-level trough will
overspread a weak to moderately unstable airmass across Montana. The
majority of the forcing will be farther north across Canada,
however, weak height falls and terrain driven circulations should be
sufficient enough for storm development by mid-afternoon across
central Montana. 30 to 35 knots of shear should be sufficient for
storm organization including some supercell potential. In addition,
strong heating will result in steep lapse rates and an environment
supporting damaging winds.

...Dakotas...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast across
central South Dakota and vicinity on Sunday afternoon, southwest of
a frontal zone. Persistent southwesterly 1km flow is expected for
much of the day. Isentropic ascent within this zone will support the
potential for thunderstorms for much of the day. Thunderstorm coverage/intensity may increase as a mid-level shortwave trough
approaches the region during the afternoon. In addition, the
low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening which
will result in more widespread storm development. The environment,
featuring moderate to strong instability and 35-45 kts of effective
shear, within a zone of moderate forcing, may result in some strong
storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast...
A strong mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will become a
closed upper low across southern Ontario on Sunday. An individual
mid-level trough revolving around the primary trough will become
negatively tilted as it pivots through the Northeast. A secondary
mid-level shortwave trough will dig into the western portion of this
trough and emerge around the base of the trough late Sunday evening.
These features amid the deepening upper low will result in
persistent ascent across the region where weak instability will also
be present. Shear may be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots), which may
limit overall storm organization. However, the cool temperatures
aloft should be sufficient for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Arkansas and Vicinity...
Most guidance shows a moderate low-level jet and isentropic ascent
across eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas late Sunday night and
early Monday. Forecast soundings, other than the HiRes NAM, show
relatively meager instability. Therefore, while thunderstorms are
likely along this zone given the strong forcing, severe storms may
struggle amid relatively weak instability. Therefore, no
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 230553
SWODY2
SPC AC 230551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible
across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern
Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may
also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to
the eastern Carolinas.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Canadian prairies on
Monday with some weak height falls overspreading North Dakota and
northern South Dakota. A weak surface low will accompany this trough
with a cold front extending into the Dakotas. Moderate to
potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this cold front.
Subtle forcing from the height falls and weak convergence along the
front may support isolated storms during the afternoon/evening.
Long/straight hodographs would support supercells capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts. Steep lapse rates will support some
potential for 75+ mph wind gusts. In addition, if any longer lived
supercells can develop, 2+ inch hail is also possible. Stronger
forcing, hinted at by the more amplified mid-level trough on the 00Z
NAM, would support greater storm coverage and potentially greater
hail/wind probabilities in later outlooks.

...Northern Great Basin into the central High Plains...
Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop over the higher
terrain from the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies. As
storms move into the adjacent Plains, where strong heating and steep
lapse rates are forecast, severe wind gusts are possible. Storm mode
will be single cell to multicell, with only 15 to 25 knots of shear
across the region. However, the thermodynamic profile will support
an isolated severe wind threat.

...Southeast...
Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s amid mid 70s F dewpoints will
yield MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg from Louisiana to the North Carolina
coast. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough moisture-fueled
buoyancy will support the potential for wet downbursts capable of
damaging gusts during the afternoon.

...Maine...
Deep-layer ascent ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough
will support scattered thunderstorm development during the late
morning into the afternoon hours across central and northern Maine.
A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will pivot around the
upper trough and overspread Maine during the afternoon, when
buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750 J/kg with over 50
kts of effective bulk/speed shear. Therefore, any storms that
develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in
nature, posting an isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the
afternoon.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central
Plains.

...North Georgia to the Carolinas...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop
south of a stalled cold front from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present.
Lapse rates will be quite weak (~6 C/km), but most guidance shows
temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should provide
pockets of moderate to strong instability. Effective shear is
forecast to be weak (15 to 20 knots), but only slight modifications
in the effective layer calculation result in significantly greater
effective shear (30 to 35 knots) given moderate to strong flow above
7km. Therefore, any storms that can take advantage of this stronger
flow aloft may be longer-lived and capable of some damaging wind
gusts.

...Central/Northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota
and Vicinity...
A mid-level ridge will slowly deamplify through the day on Friday
across the northern Plains. As this occurs, lee troughing will
strengthen through the day with a lee cyclone forecast to develop
across western South Dakota by early Saturday morning. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of the lee trough will advect low to
potentially mid 60s dewpoints into South Dakota. This will result in
moderate to potentially strong instability in the region. However,
most forecast soundings show the environment remaining capped for
much of the day which casts some doubt on diurnal storm coverage.
Some 00Z CAM guidance shows storms prior to 00Z across western
portions of the Marginal Risk area, but without strong forcing, it
is unclear if these storms will develop. Given the capped airmass,
the primary storm focus will likely be across northeast Nebraska and
eastern South Dakota, at the nose of the low-level jet where
warm-air advection will strengthen in the evening. Forecast
soundings show moderate to strong instability and strong shear
within this zone after 00Z. Large hail may be the primary threat in
the evening with the wind threat more dependent on potential upscale
growth.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS02 KWNS 280554
SWODY2
SPC AC 280553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Great Basin and the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main
threat.

...Synopsis...
The upper ridge that has remained stagnant across the Southwest into
the central U.S. will gradually drift toward the MS Valley tomorrow
(Saturday), resulting in the progression and amplification of a
mid-level trough over the Intermountain West. A surface lee trough
will gradually intensify east of the Rockies, with some potential
for surface low development over the northern High Plains. A belt of
stronger mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper
trough will overspread a relatively moist low-level airmass across
portions of the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. As such,
adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear will be in place to
support at least scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

...Portions of the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains...
A broad belt of 40-50 kt 500 mb flow will overspread the northern
Great Basin to ND through Saturday afternoon and evening, yielding
elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Furthermore, the approach of
the aforementioned upper trough will promote adequate QG ascent for
at least scattered thunderstorm development from the northern Great
Basin to the Dakotas. A relatively mixed boundary layer beneath the
broader region of stronger flow aloft and accompanying speed shear
will encourage at least isolated severe gust potential, hence the
introduction of broad Marginal Risk probabilities.

Across northern portions of the Great Basin, a relatively focused
corridor of severe wind potential exists immediately ahead of the
upper trough, where QG ascent will be strongest. NAM and RAP
forecast soundings disagree somewhat on thermodynamic profiles
across this region. RAP shows the presence of richer low-level
moisture (i.e. dewpoints over 60 F), amid 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, NAM depicts upper 40s F
low to 50s F dewpoints and slightly less steep mid-level lapse
rates. Nonetheless, both guidance members agree on showing over 1000
J/kg peak MLCAPE amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective
bulk shear, suggesting the potential for supercells. As such, a
Category 2/Slight Risk was introduced.

Across the Dakotas, immediately west of a surface low, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop amid moist low-level upslope
flow along the higher terrain. While mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to be overly steep in this region, these storms will
develop amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear, with supercell structures possible. Severe wind and hail are
currently the main hazards expected with these storms, with a Slight
Risk introduced.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind
and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around an upper ridge that
will gradually progress across the central and eastern CONUS
tomorrow (Sunday). A mid-level shortwave trough will crest the upper
ridge and impinge on the northern Plains while a smaller mid-level
impulse traverses the Great Lakes and a another shortwave trough
ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast. This upper air pattern
will encourage surface lee troughing over the Plains, accompanied by appreciable low-level moisture advection. Through the day, colder
temperatures aloft will overspread this low-level moisture,
resulting in increased buoyancy coinciding with an increase in
deep-layer shear and ascent to support at least isolated severe
thunderstorm development. The best chance for any severe storms will
be ahead of a cold front and along the warm front over the
central/northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley.

...Parts of the Upper MS Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a diffuse warm front by
late afternoon across far eastern ND into far northeast SD and
western MN. Mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be
particularly steep (e.g. 6.5-7 C/km). However, surface dewpoints
approaching 70 F will contribute to 1500-2500 J/kg of tall and thin
MLCAPE. Coinciding this buoyancy will be a strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet beneath an impinging 500 mb wind
maximum, yielding sizeable curved and elongated hodographs (e.g. 50
kts of effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 ESRH), especially by
sunset. If a couple of supercells manage to develop along the warm
front, isolated severe wind/hail and perhaps a tornado or two could
occur. The potential for poor lapse rates and westward displacement
of the stronger forcing for ascent to the west precludes higher
severe probabilities this outlook.

...Central to northern Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to
late afternoon as the upper trough impinges on the region. Strong
flow aloft will overspread a dry boundary layer, which will support
relatively fast moving, high-based thunderstorms. Forecast soundings
depict a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE amid elongated, straight
hodographs, so multicellular storms are expected, accompanied by a
sparse severe gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 300555
SWODY2
SPC AC 300553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible tomorrow (Monday) from the central Plains toward parts of
the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the central and eastern
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with at least one low-amplitude mid-level
trough and several other smaller-scale impulses poised to pivot
around the upper ridge, overspreading the central High Plains to the
Northeast in the process. Given the presence of these impulses atop
a moist boundary layer, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected
all along the northern periphery of the ridge. While thunderstorms
will be more sparse over parts of the central Plains to the Midwest,
cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft overspreading the
aforementioned moist boundary layer will foster enough buoyancy and
shear to support a conditional severe threat.

...Central Plains to the Midwest...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley
while a smaller mid-level impulse impinges on the central High
Plains after dark. As such, upper support will be limited along an
effective warm frontal boundary extending from central NE to far
western WI during the day. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints
should exceed 70 F as 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are advected
overhead from the west, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore,
modest westerly mid-level flow will also contribute to 35-40 kts of
effective bulk shear, which is more than adequate for multicells and
supercells should a storm develop and mature. Severe wind and hail
would be the main threats with such a storm. Despite the favorable
kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space, the severe threat
remains quite conditional given the lack of upper support, as
suggested by CAMS, which show little in the way of storm coverage.
Given doubts on more than sparse storm coverage, only Marginal Risk probabilities remain in place.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 060511
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the northern
Rockies to the northern Plains on Monday. This will break down the
upper ridge across the region, shifting it eastward toward the Great
Lakes. At this occurs, strengthening mid/upper southwesterly flow
will overspread the Plains. Southerly low-level winds will maintain
a corridor of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints ahead of a surface low
lifting northeast across the Dakotas. Warmer midlevel temperatures
may result in capping for much of the day. However, as the upper
trough approaching cooling aloft and increasing large-scale ascent
should erode inhibition by late afternoon. Vertically veering wind
profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt.
Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for large hail
and locally damaging gusts.

A south/southwest low-level jet is forecast to increase during the
evening. Though nocturnal cooling will resulting in increase
inhibition after dark, warm advection aided by the strengthening
low-level jet may result in one or more clusters of strong storms
across the eastern portions of the Dakotas/Nebraska and into MN
during the nighttime hours. It is uncertain if sufficient
instability will persist overnight to support severe convection, but
given the strength of mid/upper flow, some risk for damaging wind
gusts could persist overnight.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A mid-level shortwave trough will take on increasingly negative tilt
on Monday as it lifts north-northeast along the northwest periphery
of a central CONUS ridge. At the same time, a subtle, low-amplitude
short-wave trough currently over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of
Southern California will quickly move northeast ahead of the main
wave.

At the surface, an anticyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will
maintain south-southeasterly flow across the Plains, sustaining mid-to-upper-60Fs dewpoints across the Missouri Valley into the
Dakotas and western Minnesota. A weak low across eastern Montana
will eventually redevelop northward into the Canadian Prairies
overnight. As this happens, a cold front will move east across the
Northern Plains.


... Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest ...

The lead short-wave trough will be approaching the north-central US
at the start of the forecast period (Monday morning). As the
associated mid-level jet approaches, the low-level jet will increase
and spread northward across the Plains. On the nose of this jet,
elevated convection is likely to be ongoing in response to the
warm-air advection. Latest model guidance maintains the low-level
jet through the day and subsequently the morning convection is
likely to persist through the day as it moves northeast toward
western Minnesota. Although widespread cloud cover and moist
mid-level profiles will limit instability, the degree of the
cloud-layer shear will support at least some potential for hail with
these elevated storms.

To the southwest of the morning convection, clearing clouds will
give way to robust heating allowing surface temperatures to climb
into the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs, with even hotter surface
temperatures across western Nebraska. This will allow strong
instability to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold
front/dry line.

Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon along the surface front/dryline. However, low-level
convergence along this boundary will be somewhat weak, with southerly/southwesterly flow ahead of it. At the same time,
large-scale subsidence will likely be occurring in the wake of the
morning convection. This should limit storm coverage across western
South Dakota and western Nebraska. Northwest North Dakota and
eastern Montana will be closer to the main wave as its associated
better large-scale ascent. Thus, storm coverage may be slightly
higher here during the afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong
wind gusts will be possible with any of these storms.

Overnight, the low-level jet increases in response to the main wave
approaching the area. This should result in additional elevated
thunderstorm development from northeast Nebraska into the eastern
Dakotas. This activity should continue east across Minnesota through
the overnight. Overall instability should be on the low side given
the convection from the lead shortwave, but strong cloud-layer shear
could support a hail and wind threat with the strongest elevated
convection.

..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070515
SWODY2
SPC AC 070513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley as this occurs. Meanwhile,
a surface low over Manitoba will lift northeast through the early
Wednesday. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward across the
Upper Midwest, with the southern extent of the boundary stalling
over southern NE. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be
in place, supporting pockets of weak to moderate instability.

Most forecast guidance depicts ongoing thunderstorms Tuesday morning
across parts of MN/WI within a warm advection regime. This activity
could pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts. Early day
thunderstorms could impact airmass recovery and destabilization for afternoon/evening severe potential ahead of the advancing cold
front. If sufficient recovery occurs, another round of severe
potential could develop from southeast MN into WI and the MI Upper
Peninsula. Otherwise, severe potential will increase during the
evening with southward extent ahead of the front across IA/eastern
NE and perhaps northern KS. While vertical shear will lessen with
southward extent, initial cells will likely develop into line
segments along the front. An initial risk of hail and strong gusts
will transition to mainly a damaging wind risk as storm mode becomes
more linear.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 080515
SWODY2
SPC AC 080513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes...

An upper trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
and Northeast on Wednesday. Stronger deep-layer flow will be focused
across the Great Lakes and Northeast, to the north of a corridor of
modest instability. As a surface cold front develops southeast
toward the Ohio Valley and western NY during the evening, isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development is expected. While modest
instability will limit a more substantial severe risk, stronger
deep-layer flow will support sporadic strong gusts.

...Central Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...

Stronger instability is forecast within a moist and hot airmass from
KS to the Lower MO and Lower OH Valleys Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This area will remain well south of strong westerly flow
aloft associated with the Great Lake upper trough, resulting in
modest vertical shear, especial across KS. Despite modest shear,
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 amid steeper low and midlevel lapse rates
will support some risk of strong to severe convection. Storms
developing along a surface boundary will mainly pose a risk for
damaging gusts. Where marginally stronger shear will be located
across the Lower MO Valley vicinity, small hail could also occur
with the strongest updrafts.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090519
SWODY2
SPC AC 090517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks
into the Mid-South.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front is
forecast to extend across the Ohio Valley into the southern High
Plains during the morning. The western extent of the boundary over
the southern High plains will sag southward through the period into northern/central TX, while the eastern extent of the boundary stalls
over the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in
place near and south of the surface boundary. Pockets of weak to
moderate instability are expected near the surface boundary, but
will largely be modulated by areas of ongoing precipitation at the
beginning of the period, as well as weak midlevel lapse rates.

Low-level flow is expected to remain weak, while strong flow aloft
will be offset from stronger instability ahead of the surface front.
This will limit more focused/robust severe potential. However, a few
strong storms could occur across the southern High Plains within the post-frontal upslope flow regime where vertically veering wind
profiles could support around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes.
Marginal hail and gusty winds could occur within this regime.

Within the very moist and moderately unstable airmass further east
across portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South, sufficient clustering
could occur to promote sporadic strong wind gusts via storm/outflow interactions, or from wet microbursts within the high-PW and steeper
low-level lapse rate environment.

..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110501
SWODY2
SPC AC 110500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF
NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, and perhaps at least a small organizing
cluster of storms, appear possible across parts of the lower
Missouri Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, which will likely be
maintained to the southeast of the Aleutians through this period,
models indicate that another vigorous digging short wave trough will
contribute to lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis offshore of the
Pacific Northwest, before slowly pivoting inland Saturday through
Saturday night. Farther east, it appears that attempts at building
ridging across the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains will
be suppressed by a digging short wave trough across the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, within the southwestern periphery of larger-scale troughing east of the Canadian Prairies through the
Canadian Maritimes.

By 12Z Saturday, perhaps the strongest short wave perturbation
within the eastern Canadian troughing is forecast to be in the
process of digging near the southwestern shores of Hudson Bay. As
this feature turns eastward during the day, renewed cyclogenesis is
forecast to the southeast of the primary surface cyclone, across
northern Quebec. A cold front trailing to the southwest may advance
across much of the upper Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and northern
Great Plains by late Saturday night, preceded by a weaker cool
surge, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow, across the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains.

It does appear that southern mid- to subtropical latitude ridging
will remain prominent across much of the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast into early Sunday. Within and near the
northern periphery of this feature, a weak perturbation initially
migrating east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to
become increasingly sheared across the Appalachians through Northeast.

...Parts of central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley...
Stronger warm sector low-level wind fields and forcing for ascent
are generally forecast to remain in closer proximity to the primary
and secondary surface cyclones, to the Canadian side of the
international border through this period. However, in the wake of
the shearing perturbation to the east of the Mississippi Valley,
models continue to suggest that forcing for ascent aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm, beneath a difluent regime near/just
south of the mid-level westerlies, may provide a focus for strong
thunderstorm development Saturday through Saturday night.

By early Saturday, it appears that this may set up across the lower
Missouri Valley vicinity, where a zone of stronger differential
surface heating may evolve by late Saturday afternoon. Seasonably
high boundary-layer moisture near the interface of the stronger
heating, beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may support a
corridor of large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg.
Coinciding with at least modest deep-layer shear, aided by
pronounced veering of winds with height in lower to mid-levels, this
regime may become conducive to the development of isolated to widely
scattered supercells. It is possible that stronger activity
persisting into Saturday evening could grow upscale into an
organizing southeastward propagating cluster, near the nose of a
modestly strengthening southwesterly nocturnal boundary-layer jet.


Due to substantive continuing spread within and among the various
model output, including the latest available convection-allowing
guidance, severe probabilities have been maintained at 5 percent.
However, this could still change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120510
SWODY2
SPC AC 120509

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms accompanied by small to marginally severe
hail and potential for locally damaging wind gusts may impact parts
of the Northeast through upper Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that the initially notable mid-level
low inland of the Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Sunday may be
slower to devolve into an open short wave trough. However, it still
is forecast to remain progressive, slowly accelerating northeastward
across the northern U.S. Rockies, in advance of a short wave impulse
digging toward the northwestern Canadian Prairies. Within the
downstream westerlies, models indicate that short wave ridging will
build across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, and adjacent portions of the southeastern Canadian Prairies
through northwestern Ontario, while downstream troughing digs across
Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region into Northeast.

It appears that the primary surface cyclone associated with eastern
troughing may migrate from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea by
late Sunday night. However, another surface low may begin to
form/consolidate near/northeast of coastal northern New England,
with a trailing cold advancing southeast of the lower Great Lakes
region into the northern Atlantic Seaboard through Allegheny Plateau
by the end of the period. Westward through the Ohio and middle
Mississippi Valleys into the central Great Plains, it appears that
this front may stall south of the stronger westerlies, with a cool
surface high maintaining influence across much of the northern into
central Great Plains until it centers shifts east of the upper
Mississippi Valley late Sunday night.

...Parts of western New England into the Ohio Valley...
In the wake of a sheared mid-level perturbation shifting across and
east of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day,
low-level convergence and destabilization ahead of the main cold
front advancing to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region
remains unclear. However, both HREF and REFS calibrated
thunderstorm guidance suggest at least widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by or shortly after peak heating Sunday,
from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley.
It is possible that this may coincide with sufficient strengthening
of westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer to support modestly
organizing thunderstorm activity with potential to produce
marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before
weakening Sunday evening.

...North central Great Plains/Middle Missouri Valley vicinity...
Latest model output continues to exhibit substantive spread
concerning convective potential across the region through this
period. It now appears probable that at least a shallow relatively
cool/stable boundary layer will remain entrenched as far south and
west as Kansas into the northern high plains, beneath warming
elevated mixed-layer air advecting north-northeast of the higher
terrain. Forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching mid-level
low/trough may support increasing thunderstorm development across
the Dakotas Sunday night. However, based on forecast soundings,
this may be rooted within/above the elevated mixed-layer, with weak
CAPE limiting potential for severe hail.

..Kerr.. 09/12/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)