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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1064

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 15 06:36:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 150636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150635=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-150830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1064
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0135 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...Northern LA/southern AR into central MS and
    west-central AL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

    Valid 150635Z - 150830Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for large hail and locally damaging gusts will
    persist overnight. A local extension of WW 301 may be needed, while
    watch issuance into Alabama is being considered.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered elevated supercells are ongoing at 0630 UTC
    across parts of central MS, while a somewhat larger supercell
    cluster has evolved over west-central AL. In general, the
    environment remains favorable for organized elevated storms, with
    MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear (with
    effective shear of 60-70 kt). The cluster in AL appears to be
    propagating along the instability gradient, and its longevity is
    somewhat uncertain. However, with a moderate southwesterly low-level
    jet in place, this cluster may continue into parts of south AL, and
    this area is being monitored for the potential of watch issuance.=20

    Farther west, elevated supercells may persist across parts of MS,
    with some redevelopment possible across northern LA. With some large
    hail threat likely to persist for a few more hours, local watch
    extension of WW 301 may be needed prior to the 07Z expiration time.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lkozs_JX00r1QevXWe5tjNoskyQFk8H3gX_QxwmWgtfzX4qZJbpwc605OVN0V36fPvA5yi7Y= vt5k_96_b_AQpc2-yE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31849037 32669212 33089291 33259317 33499309 33559141
    33739033 33158851 32688764 32468721 31968613 31448574
    31298622 31598775 31658837 31849037=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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