• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0492

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 19 04:31:30 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 190431
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190430=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

    Areas affected...North-central/northeast AR into southeast
    MO...western TN...far western KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129...130...

    Valid 190430Z - 190600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129, 130
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe hail and wind will spread
    southeastward overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Occasionally organized convection is ongoing late
    tonight near a southeastward moving cold front from north-central AR
    into southeast MO. While the primary upper-level trough and surface
    low will become increasingly displaced northeast of the region,
    low-level south-southwesterly flow will maintain rich moisture
    along/ahead of the front, with MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg
    potentially spreading from AR into western TN. Deep-layer shear will
    remain modestly favorable for organized storms and somewhat
    orthogonal to the boundary, and a transient supercell or two remains
    possible if deep convection can be sustained. With time, weakening
    ascent and increasing MLCINH with southeastward extent will
    eventually result in a diminishing threat, but isolated hail and
    damaging gusts remain possible into the early overnight hours.

    ..Dean.. 04/19/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8pemS0ZZAVm-QR4NjQqXYgixxuVh6D_7xCXk8YrAA_yRYPEXaDDhGyM1tUOIMOXZKwva0jLmU= tw0WLUbP8WOoWJ9BNE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35499282 36299094 36738964 36938923 36798861 36518843
    35998850 35628897 35059092 34829187 34849239 35079270
    35429278 35499282=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)