ACUS11 KWNS 140125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140125=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-140330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239...
Valid 140125Z - 140330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift east along the central Gulf Coast
this evening. Damaging winds are the primary risk.
DISCUSSION...Well-organized MCS has matured along the central Gulf
Coast early this evening. MCV appears to be embedded within the
larger precip shield near the LA/MS border south of Natchez.
Early-day thunderstorm complex that spread along the northeast Gulf
Coast has advanced into the northern FL Peninsula and weakened, but
trailing outflow and rain-cooled boundary layer has stabilized much
of the FL Panhandle into southern AL. As the leading edge of the MCS
surges east into this air mass there should be some propensity for
weakening as it encounters a less favorable environment. Until then,
damaging winds can be expected with the surging squall line.
Given the expected weakening, current thinking is a new watch may
not be warranted.
..Darrow.. 05/14/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!87it02WlnyTIB8zDfKPdnOC8CAWFGC6HVLpo6GrffYOruEGGkcvVKJqoSZXO1VOU5niQQAkBS= _pJmASuV4OBMQY3wco$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31129258 30778841 28898841 29249260 31129258=20
=3D =3D =3D
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