ACUS11 KWNS 160110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160109=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...247...

Valid 160109Z - 160245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246, 247
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 246-247. Severe gusts remain the primary threat with merging multicells, with large hail continuing with the more discrete,
persistent supercells.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of merging multicells and their cold pools is
underway across northern portions of the TX Panhandle, which have a
history of producing occasional instances of severe hail and wind
(with a couple of gusts exceeding 65 kts). Similarly, convective
outflow over the southern TX Panhandle continues to support severe
gusts as well (per latest observations). Finally, supercells persist
along the KS/OK border area, with a dominant right-moving supercell
having recently produced measured 4 inch diameter hail.=20

These storms continue to benefit from amply buoyancy residing atop a
deep boundary layer (per the 00Z OUN observed sounding, which shows
steep tropospheric lapse rates remain in place). Latest
Warn-on-Forecast guidance suggests that storms across the northern
TX Panhandle will continue to track northeastward, perhaps with a
focused corridor of severe gusts. Guidance also suggests supercells
along the KS/OK border should persist with a severe hail/gust threat
for at least a few more hours. Finally, some of the latest runs of
the Warn-on_Forecast ensemble guidance depict an appreciable severe
wind swath approaching the Rolling Plains in TX. While severe gusts
are being produced rapidly propagating eastward outflow, the severe
threat is conditional upon the development of newer, robust
thunderstorms.

..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!97d0TsQOMFqX-9j-WhnxWEimTC3dOzbqXFhF28QLXfYjlmWOfUaRPqwk-zYXqGjZYxWfk6nsa= 2sgHgx7HkM1UGuJ68A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33570253 36520135 37899858 37879624 37229597 36619646
35239880 34440019 33390100 33570253=20


=3D =3D =3D
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