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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0945

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 25 02:03:27 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 250203
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250202=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0945
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0902 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

    Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Arkansas...Far Northwest Louisiana...Northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...305...

    Valid 250202Z - 250400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303, 305
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat across the Ark-La-Tex is expected to
    continue for several more hours. Large hail and wind damage will be
    the primary threats, although the strongest of cells could also have
    an isolated tornado threat.

    DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large MCS, with
    scattered severe storms, located from northeast Texas extending
    northward into eastern Oklahoma and northeastward into southwest
    Arkansas. The airmass across much of the Ark-La-Tex is strongly
    unstable with the RAP estimating MLCAPE generally in the 3000 to
    4000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings this evening across
    much of the unstable airmass have moderate deep-layer shear, with
    700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. The environment
    will continue to support supercells with large hail and wind damage.
    A wind-damage threat will also be likely with the more intense short
    line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue into the
    late evening, but should become more widely scattered as instability
    begins to decrease across the region.

    ..Broyles.. 05/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_-3VT_BKlNaylA_wCOKG_37h1IX3Bh9dGhEKVjv_5TnMqXYEg7ogDMs5Qb7nmW2sD1w7GIKXD= 8SVTH9m_g42A3_sgbI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32689284 33359151 33809103 34209091 34699138 34969203
    35409304 35679373 35689430 35229465 34759474 34009469
    33499495 32749621 32279666 31859659 31629632 31679559
    32179414 32689284=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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