ACUS11 KWNS 312225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312225=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Western Oklahoma
Panhandle...Western and Central Texas Panhandle...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...

Valid 312225Z - 010030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across the
southern High Plains over the next few hours. Large hail and severe
wind gusts will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a meso-low over southern
Colorado with a surface trough extending southward across
east-central New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are developing in
the higher terrain of northeast and east-central New Mexico. These
storms will continue to move into the lower elevations over the next
few hours. Surface dewpoints ahead of the storms generally range
from the upper 40s to mid 50s F. This is contributing to about 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE, according to the RAP. In addition, the latest
WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with
considerable directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This should
support a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts
possible, as cells move southeastward into the Texas Panhandle and
west Texas later this evening. If a cold pool can become organized,
then the potential for severe wind gusts would increase.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-be796jCpziOfavMVYIrl7887EAdrEFokeGKk2w1vcZf0slprpXKSjroSmKh9e35sQl-6YpJ8= DC27MmiaKfw6So93EM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36930333 36610384 35960399 35090396 34350385 34120369
33950327 33930282 34010239 34310207 34790185 35530169
36780184 36930333=20


=3D =3D =3D
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