ACUS11 KWNS 091936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091935=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into western Texas and
southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091935Z - 092130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated
through the late afternoon hours across southeast New Mexico into
western and central Texas and southwest/southern Oklahoma. While
sporadic hail and damaging winds are possible, storm
organization/longevity should remain limited. Watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few attempts at sustained
convective initiation across central to western TX along a diffuse
surface trough/confluence zone to the east of a weak surface low
over the Trans Pecos region. Additional cumulus development is noted
along a cold front pushing southward through southern OK and
northwest TX. More robust/sustained convection appears likely within
the next 1-2 hours across both of these regions as diurnal heating
and weak mesoscale ascent further erode lingering inhibition and
surface-based parcels approach their convective temperatures
(generally in the mid 90s).=20

To the west, persistent cloud cover over NM has limited daytime
heating to some degree, but filtered insolation will continue to
destabilize a reasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints are about
the 75th percentile for early June across southeastern NM). A few
early updrafts are noted in far southeast NM with additional/more
numerous thunderstorm development within the upslope flow regime
anticipated a little later this afternoon, most likely during the
21-23 UTC period based off recent high-res guidance.=20

Both regions are characterized by moderate to strong SBCAPE
(2000-4000 J/kg), weak deep-layer wind shear (based on recent VWP observations), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers. Consequently,
the expectation is for initially discrete to semi-discrete cells to
pose an early severe hail risk before quickly becoming outflow
dominant with additional redevelopment along outflow boundaries. One
or more somewhat organized clusters may emerge and pose a more
focused severe wind threat if consolidated cold pools can become
established; however, this appears to be a low-predictability
scenario given the potential for scattered thunderstorms over a
broad region. Given the poor kinematic environment and
low-confidence in where more focused severe wind corridors will
emerge, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kLT_BZdW15aHZ5ew25naosUSVoxjuzlDIzD83ns_uu53twykT967Qbwo0I9HUgbpXlzQKMLv= 2af85EXZ1MzczPmtbw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 30830296 31320355 32240440 32810454 33600445 34080412
34500353 34860272 34840175 34529952 34719800 34999684
34969630 34519614 33989640 33569682 33059803 32769861
32149893 31429869 30729871 30309892 30109932 30049994
30010059 30130135 30830296=20


=3D =3D =3D
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