ACUS11 KWNS 250937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250937=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-251130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...Far Southern Lower MI...Far Northern IN...Far
Northwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 250937Z - 251130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential from the ongoing MCS may extend into far
southern lower MI, far northern IN, and potentially even far
northwest OH. A downstream watch will likely be needed for portions
of the area.

DISCUSSION...Convective line ongoing from east-central WI across
central Lake Michigan and into far western Lower MI continues to
push southeastward at 50 to 55 kt. Despite an earlier trend towards
potentially more southerly motion the MCS appears to be maintaining
its more southeasterly trajectory, which would bring the MCS to the
southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 at around 11Z. The
expectation is for some severe potential to likely continue south of
the watch. One limiting factor is that the current southeasterly
motion takes displaces the line further from the better low-level
moisture and buoyancy. However, given the organization and strength
of the MCS, some severe threat will likely extend into far southern
lower MI, far northern IN, and potentially even far northwest OH.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qF8KjyXZ6Izh-mOF_zIpfDOi6yGuj5HN4mmwCE7H-Y9jUCHN5hQ4pdQKAA-ErvDdJfUyrv1w= VqoB7jJSKSkMZZFsoI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 42288672 42418492 42288338 41508340 41028424 41278727
42288672=20


=3D =3D =3D
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