ACUS11 KWNS 122157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122157=20
AZZ000-NVZ000-130000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...Western Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122157Z - 130000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms spreading west across
west/northwest Arizona may produce strong to severe winds over the
next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated given the
limited spatial extent of the threat and marginal environmental
conditions.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KESX shows a growing cluster
of thunderstorms across west/northwest AZ that appears to be
gradually intensifying as it grows upscale based on GOES IR imagery
and lightning trends. Velocity data suggest that cold pool
amalgamation is underway, with a more cohesive cluster/linear
segment likely to emerge across western AZ in the next 1-2 hours.
Very hot (100+ F) conditions downstream are supporting dewpoint
depressions above 50 F, suggesting a very deeply mixed boundary
layer is in place. These low-level thermodynamic conditions are
favorable for strong to severe downburst winds within the
cluster/segment. Although slightly better buoyancy is also noted
downstream towards the CO River, increasing MLCIN with westward
extent may modulate the overall intensity and longevity of this
threat, resulting in a somewhat narrow corridor of an appreciable
severe threat.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yreHHdxmYnOkOUzqdJ4i8NJ5VhjZQKFprHBDkibz3P8WUWLQQnee-VfXz8Wyez-mc3mufFFn= fXzukcKekDyqaRVAlc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

LAT...LON 35591260 34881232 34641261 34631375 34771413 35161448
35591451 36081430 36221373 36121317 35591260=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)