ACUS11 KWNS 132036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132035=20
SDZ000-132200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...portions of southwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132035Z - 132200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany any
multicell or supercell that can develop and become sustained this
afternoon. Given the spatially and temporally constricted nature of
the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts agitated CU/attempt
at convective initiation over the Black Hills of South Dakota,
driven by afternoon peak heating, some orographic lift, and the
approach of a 500 mb vort max (per 20Z mesoanalysis). RAP forecast
soundings depict a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 700 mb,
suggesting that any storms that can become sustained will likely be
high-based in nature. Forecast soundings show hodographs of modest
length and curvature (hence 30 kts of effective bulk shear) that
will gradually enlarge/lengthen through the afternoon, supporting
multicells and perhaps a few splitting supercells. While some MLCINH
remains, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is present, which could support
strong enough storms to potentially produce large hail and severe
gusts, especially if a sustained supercell structure can
materialize. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated,
so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!70LZ4Qw1REui5341YTvOzkfNvYLx1Ru4r5M--88gmSs5vbmmgjgqoxvkTXLebRQ_tfCzRABc2= BjK7ZIjYPoFXxAaMAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON 44510381 44570372 44580358 44520329 44430291 44240236
44120217 43840198 43620194 43480228 43460281 43540342
43630355 43940380 44510381=20


=3D =3D =3D
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