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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1623

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 15 02:51:26 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 150251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150250=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-150445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1623
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0950 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

    Areas affected...central to southeast ND and northeast SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

    Valid 150250Z - 150445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for significant large hail and severe gusts
    will likely spread southeastward from northwest/north-central North
    Dakota towards south-central/southeast North Dakota into northeast
    South Dakota overnight. An additional severe thunderstorm watch is
    likely downstream of WW 533 by 04-05Z.

    DISCUSSION...Supercell clusters in north-central and northwest North
    Dakota appear likely to consolidate over the central portion of the
    state during the next couple hours. The more intense supercell
    structures have contained MRMS MESH signatures in excess of 2 inches
    in diameter, mainly with the eastern cluster as these cells track
    steadily southeast along the composite outflow/front. The western
    cluster has accelerated eastward and should eventually merge with
    the eastern one, north-northeast of Bismarck. Despite robust MLCIN
    with southern extent, convection will likely evolve along the MLCAPE
    gradient across eastern ND into northeast SD. This will be aided by
    a slowly strengthening low-level jet, recently to around 30 kts per
    the BIS VWP. The strong deep-layer shear evident in the VWP and 00Z
    BIS sounding will likely maintain supercell structures embedded
    within the consolidating clusters. As such, a mix of both severe
    hail and wind are likely, either of which may be significant.

    ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5mry7E1pB-vSAZopvdwHY796PTho7-CbibEKwkilPwENlukABPYF8xLPXqdXLyJ3nj0amaXWH= 7GF8tn8vYrxl1_BqBM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48390046 48209884 46949690 45959624 45699619 44569799
    46220027 46880127 47420212 47860218 48390046=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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