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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1724

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 29 05:40:01 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 290539
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290539=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1724
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

    Areas affected...southeast SD...northeast NE and western IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 290539Z - 290745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts may remain possible
    through the pre-dawn hours early this morning with a pair of
    slow-moving supercells over the Mid-Missouri Valley.

    DISCUSSION...In between a broader MCV over northeast IA and a
    smaller MCV in central SD, a pair of slow-moving supercells have
    developed along the southeast SD/northeast NE border area. This
    activity is within a zone of lower-level warm theta-e advection,
    with increasingly pronounced MLCIN in the warm-moist sector to its south-southwest. Most guidance suggests that the advection regime
    should gradually subside within this corridor over the next several
    hours. But given the upstream MCV over central SD moving about twice
    as fast as these storms, it is plausible that a merging may occur
    during the next few hours. One of the 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs, which
    appears to have a decent handle on both convective areas, supports
    this scenario. This could result in the initial primary threat of
    large hail, transitioning to more of a severe wind threat later this
    morning.

    ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/29/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4smR3VMS9B0Nt7WPIBrQZiIJVcQrfwAl-hkk_pFI86LyPZDAY0fZWDWeIoRfEnmelzR8O9Ehp= j5_xn7xPdLzg9kj3_8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42189836 42849952 43409933 43749866 43109704 42629568
    42039537 41509573 41669697 42189836=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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