• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1727

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 29 20:26:37 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 292026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292025=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-292300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1727
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0325 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

    Areas affected...the Nebraska Panhandle...eastward to south-central
    South Dakota and central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292025Z - 292300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm development expected in the next 60 to 90 minutes is
    expected, with an associated increase in severe potential
    thereafter. WW issuance may be required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradual
    evolution of TCU/small CB from the increasing cu field across
    eastern Wyoming and into western portions of the Nebraska Panhandle.
    The convection is developing with a modestly unstable environment,
    but greater CAPE is indicated with eastward extent toward central Nebraska/south-central South Dakota, where 1000 to 2000 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE is indicated.

    With that said, a rather dry environment is observed above the
    boundary layer -- confirmed by the special 19Z RAOB from KLBF
    showing only 1.05 PW. As such, questions regarding coverage of
    stronger convection continue to linger.

    While weak low-level flow is indicated, cloud-layer shear is
    sufficient for updraft organization, as flow in the 500 to 300 mb
    layer increases from around 25 kt to around 50 kt. This suggests
    that any storm which can become sustained, will be capable of
    producing hail and damaging gusts. Depending upon the degree of
    convective development and eventual coverage of robust storms, WW
    issuance may be required.

    ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-pqPNbKDMm7kwBCe9km82hvDD2RMr9ZeI7_j6We7dKiv7PQSd0OkXbLd-tNw7lxqaeisjfVDw= VZL93G4MmfWxq9u48U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41590368 42600330 43320130 43579936 42209881 41219992
    41050251 41590368=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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