ACUS11 KWNS 311805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311804=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Southern Georgia and adjacent portions of far
southeast Alabama and northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311804Z - 312000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by
mid-afternoon across southern Georgia and adjacent portions of far
southeast Alabama into northern Florida. Weak wind shear will limit
the overall severe weather potential and preclude the need for a
watch, but sporadic damaging winds will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Deep convective initiation is well underway across far
southeast AL into southern GA as surface-based parcels begin to hit
their convective temperatures within a zone of weak low-level ascent
associated with a diffuse surface trough axis. Recent RAP
mesoanalysis estimates suggest that SBCAPE values upwards of
4000-5000 J/kg are in place across southern GA, which should support
multiple intense updrafts. However, regional VWPs are sampling very
weak mid and upper-level winds (generally 15 knots or less), which
will promote single cells initially with a tendency for clustering
as convection pushes slowly southeast through the afternoon. The
lack of appreciable shear will limit the potential for a more widespread/organized severe threat, but the extreme buoyancy, high
PWAT values (generally around 2.0 inches), and steepening low-level
lapse rates will promote strong downbursts with sporadic damaging
wind gusts (generally between 45-60 mph). A somewhat more focused
corridor of damaging wind potential may emerge across southern GA
later this afternoon if a more consolidated cluster can become
established; however, such a cluster would primarily be driven by
cold-pool propagation, which has inherently low predictability. As
such, watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7AZ61NKfULMGeJrZ3qWHOv2p4lbnaSKU0tkp6vJAXj309JbrTJHc-pYy4gEl51A0FRx7zgQD0= s1-bfUDmdbiO9dIbuQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 32608495 32758407 32588312 32528295 32068172 31888153
31668146 31338147 31008159 30638193 30378256 30288347
30288350 30298380 30348397 31328535 31628548 31968548
32188536 32478515 32608495=20


=3D =3D =3D
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