ACUS11 KWNS 031810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031809=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...northern Minnesota into eastern North Dakota and
far northeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031809Z - 032045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated cells may produce hail at times over parts of
northern Minnesota over the next couple hours. A greater risk of
severe hail and wind will then materialize later this afternoon
farther west with watch probability increasing.

DISCUSSION...Scattered cells persist north of a quasi-stationary
front across northern MN, as cooling aloft gradually sinks south.
Most storms this morning have been short-lived but a longer-lived
storms has developed with large hail reported. Given gradual warming
south of this boundary and southwest winds just off the surface,
these cells (though isolated) may persist as deep-layer shear is
favorable, with hail potential.

A greater risk of severe storms will likely develop by 21Z or so,
farther west along the cold front and where instability will become
stronger and surface based. Both large hail and damaging winds are
expected to develop from far southeast ND and northeast SD into
west-central MN, and a watch will likely be issued for that regime.

..Jewell.. 08/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-XlSWYWC34KFRslEIqHlbPhYUsfkObeiPOhcdHZx-FNULKBAMPLHCKk4wk4cRlEetMgKFdio= CyKySBR8resQo5lcBU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46759352 46579460 46319537 46039606 45559689 45379766
45579842 46039858 46699826 47169722 47199692 47539518
47669399 47589308 47319218 47019191 46669245 46759352=20


=3D =3D =3D
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