ACUS11 KWNS 042054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042053=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula and far southern
Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 594...

Valid 042053Z - 042300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 594 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado risk continues across FL and far southern GA.
The greatest risk should gradually drift north toward the FL/GA
border later this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, convection associated with the outer
bands of TS Debby continues to move across the central and northern
FL Peninsula. Periodic updraft rotation has been noted with some of
the stronger cells over the last several hours. However, the
expanding CDO noted with Debby's outflow has gradually expanded
inland, limiting diurnal heating. MLCAPE has started to decrease
below 1000 J/kg reducing overall convective intensity of the
observed bands. That, in combination with a more linear dominant
storm mode, has stifled tornado potential somewhat so far this
afternoon. Still, as Debby continues to deepen, already strong
low-level shear (TBW VAD 600+ m2/s2 ESRH) should continue to
intensify and shift northeast of the center. This will support
low-level updraft rotation and the potential for a few tornadoes
with any sustained convection.

..Lyons.. 08/04/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-uTuAJjGRb40dVK4EjQKVARVAOiaBF8rkKRTamVSQelg8tLsBrCxiZKoQ8u6l9VoyE53ukZBF= IsXWGMYdXfxkGOP2X8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30498442 30838423 30908291 30798195 30068151 29288112
28288076 27408059 26758085 26358123 26298147 26328179
26488223 26968245 27848283 28708261 29128294 29648357
29908419 30498442=20


=3D =3D =3D
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