• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1816

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 4 20:54:21 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 042054
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042053=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-042300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1816
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

    Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula and far southern
    Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 594...

    Valid 042053Z - 042300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 594 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado risk continues across FL and far southern GA.
    The greatest risk should gradually drift north toward the FL/GA
    border later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, convection associated with the outer
    bands of TS Debby continues to move across the central and northern
    FL Peninsula. Periodic updraft rotation has been noted with some of
    the stronger cells over the last several hours. However, the
    expanding CDO noted with Debby's outflow has gradually expanded
    inland, limiting diurnal heating. MLCAPE has started to decrease
    below 1000 J/kg reducing overall convective intensity of the
    observed bands. That, in combination with a more linear dominant
    storm mode, has stifled tornado potential somewhat so far this
    afternoon. Still, as Debby continues to deepen, already strong
    low-level shear (TBW VAD 600+ m2/s2 ESRH) should continue to
    intensify and shift northeast of the center. This will support
    low-level updraft rotation and the potential for a few tornadoes
    with any sustained convection.

    ..Lyons.. 08/04/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-uTuAJjGRb40dVK4EjQKVARVAOiaBF8rkKRTamVSQelg8tLsBrCxiZKoQ8u6l9VoyE53ukZBF= IsXWGMYdXfxkGOP2X8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30498442 30838423 30908291 30798195 30068151 29288112
    28288076 27408059 26758085 26358123 26298147 26328179
    26488223 26968245 27848283 28708261 29128294 29648357
    29908419 30498442=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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