ACUS11 KWNS 150010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150009=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska...and into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622...

Valid 150009Z - 150145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622
continues.

SUMMARY...A few severe storms -- including a persistent supercell --
are now ongoing across portions of WW 622 near the northeast
Kansas/southeast Nebraska border. Large hail remains the primary
threat, though a damaging outflow gust and/or brief tornado are also
possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop across the Mid-MO Valley area shows
several vigorous updrafts, a couple of which have exhibited
transient rotational signatures per area WSR-88D data. The most organized/long-lived cell is moving northeastward across Gage
County, though this storm too now appears to be weakening. Overall,
the environment supports strong/rotating storms; the combination of
a moist (70s dewpoints) and very unstable (3000-plus J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE) environment, combined with the presence of a northwest-to-southeast remnant outflow providing focused low-level
ascent, suggests additional strong/severe storm development over the
next couple of hours. In addition, recent CAM output continues to
hint at potential for storm development near/ahead of a surface cold
front slowly advancing across central Nebraska, which would be
expected to move into/across northwestern portions of WW 622 later
this evening. Given a similarly sheared/unstable environment ahead
of the front, potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts would
likely accompany these storms, presuming development as anticipated.

..Goss.. 08/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!44K_ShIlOOmoaAXWc-9XAh-MpU0Uf_NChrFOUp--YcDgee5pa6YAdt4_7aLKmLut_bQ_hZBGW= WTqLT1b98SbulOrkXY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38889796 39529703 40229695 40769638 40979568 40249512
39359533 38699641 38639754 38889796=20


=3D =3D =3D
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