ACUS11 KWNS 162056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162055 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-162115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 162055Z - 162115Z
CORRECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HURRICANE ERNESTO FROM SPC WEB PAGE
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will be possible
through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite trends continue to show
thunderstorm and cumulus development across portions of the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles over the last hour. This suggests that capping
has eroded, with temperatures exceeding 100 F in many locations. Dew
points are in the low to mid 60s, with dew point depressions around
40 degrees. The environment is further characterized by MLCAPE
around 1000-2000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and weak
deep layer shear. This will likely yield multi-cell clusters with
potential for strong to severe winds. With the lack of deep layer
shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_9mQN7CO1OtjZVv-4H_CByy8KS1ASWRouphceoU8QkQQjsTvcp_fmehlIvKS-8NOF-KR0wx3V= DDnXWMjord7B91UNTA$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 35499934 35739919 36149914 36489931 36639940 36750030
36920137 36910169 36920217 36950244 36760264 36700265
36300248 35750222 35200163 35189960 35499934=20
=3D =3D =3D
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