• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 16 20:21:02 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 162020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162020=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-162115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1922
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

    Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162020Z - 162115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will be possible
    through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite trends continue to show
    thunderstorm and cumulus development across portions of the Oklahoma
    and Texas Panhandles over the last hour. This suggests that capping
    has eroded, with temperatures exceeding 100 F in many locations. Dew
    points are in the low to mid 60s, with dew point depressions around
    40 degrees. The environment is further characterized by MLCAPE
    around 1000-2000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and weak
    deep layer shear. This will likely yield multi-cell clusters with
    potential for strong to severe winds. With the lack of deep layer
    shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed.

    ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9JFXebtdd4VnFeowbZXnpGH3DO_DJy4QyrCg7M3qNbCpgi9we09hltLV_qCbmvXsDwKkAjXVR= cLyR70H7wL4Y9ZL7A4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35499934 35739919 36149914 36489931 36639940 36750030
    36920137 36910169 36920217 36950244 36760264 36700265
    36300248 35750222 35200163 35189960 35499934=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 16 20:56:35 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 162056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162055 COR
    OKZ000-TXZ000-162115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1922
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

    Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162055Z - 162115Z

    CORRECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HURRICANE ERNESTO FROM SPC WEB PAGE

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will be possible
    through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite trends continue to show
    thunderstorm and cumulus development across portions of the Oklahoma
    and Texas Panhandles over the last hour. This suggests that capping
    has eroded, with temperatures exceeding 100 F in many locations. Dew
    points are in the low to mid 60s, with dew point depressions around
    40 degrees. The environment is further characterized by MLCAPE
    around 1000-2000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and weak
    deep layer shear. This will likely yield multi-cell clusters with
    potential for strong to severe winds. With the lack of deep layer
    shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed.

    ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_9mQN7CO1OtjZVv-4H_CByy8KS1ASWRouphceoU8QkQQjsTvcp_fmehlIvKS-8NOF-KR0wx3V= DDnXWMjord7B91UNTA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35499934 35739919 36149914 36489931 36639940 36750030
    36920137 36910169 36920217 36950244 36760264 36700265
    36300248 35750222 35200163 35189960 35499934=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

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