• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1935

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 17 21:57:46 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 172157
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172157=20
    VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-172330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1935
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0457 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast KY and extreme western VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 172157Z - 172330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging-wind threat will persist across southeast
    Kentucky and far western Virginia through 00-01z.

    DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms is spreading southeastward
    across eastern KY on an aggregate convective outflow, in association
    with the southern extent of a midlevel shortwave trough. Surface
    temperatures remain in the mid-upper 80s to the south of the ongoing
    storms, where MLCAPE is near 2000 J/kg. The combination of the
    moderate-strong buoyancy and lingering/steep low-level lapse rates,
    along with 30-40 kt midlevel flow per regional VWPs, will support a
    continued threat for occasional wind damage with embedded
    downbursts. Gradual cooling of the boundary layer will result in a
    slow decrease in the severe threat near and after sunset.

    ..Thompson/Guyer.. 08/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4amF8IJ6T510uvrKWSpT58qsaQfTP-MsUSIOw583ElesoZZ4PCYjqqHH40-ug3mLyH2LIjer6= TFdUkE5PhF0H0VX-lg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 37758242 37528213 37218188 36778209 36638265 36598354
    36778436 36948457 37208455 37418406 37758242=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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