ACUS11 KWNS 181922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181921=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...northern Alabama...northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181921Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to increase in
coverage through the afternoon with potential for large hail and
damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cu across much
of northern Alabama and Georgia, with a few cells developing over
the last 30 min to an hour. Thunderstorm development is likely to
expand southward in coverage across these regions over the next 1-2
hours as a cold front sags south through time. The air mass ahead of
the front is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg with
temperatures in the upper 80s - mid 90s and dew points in the low to
mid 70s. A belt of deep layer shear around 35-40 kts and the moist
and unstable air mass will support multicell clusters, capable of
downbursts and instances of severe hail. A watch will likely be
needed to cover this threat soon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_4Gzn9cNM_VBDsUwMUQYKPt8_4d0XJJTpiaJY1LCc7jxn2Pv0I-i5_KUSiWiK7PmS3sDhkp7N= 89lfPWj79o-zD4wggw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33528891 34388768 34448666 34448588 34468471 34398380
34358292 34118275 33778266 33458263 33078264 32868264
32818267 32378308 31788505 31908645 32088756 32148810
32348855 32528870 32738883 33018890 33438890 33528891=20


=3D =3D =3D
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